Montpellier
vs
Grenoble
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Montpellier 1–0 Grenoble
The model makes it 42% Montpellier, 32% draw, 26% Grenoble — fair odds of 2.38, 3.13 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Montpellier 1.23, Grenoble 0.73.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Montpellier vs Grenoble
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Montpellier at 42% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Montpellier vs Grenoble
Montpellier
- D1-1away to Reims18 September 2026
- W1-0PAU11 September 2026
- L1-3away to Saint Etienne5 September 2026
- D0-0Boulogne28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dunkerque21 August 2026
Grenoble
- D1-1Clermont Foot18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rodez11 September 2026
- L1-2Annecy4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Laval28 August 2026
- L0-4away to Saint Etienne22 August 2026
What these results say
- Montpellier scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Montpellier had two goals or fewer.
- Grenoble scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Montpellier | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 12 |
| 13 | Grenoble | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Montpellier vs Grenoble
- 17 April 2026Montpellier 2–1 GrenobleLigue 2
- 13 December 2025Grenoble 1–1 MontpellierLigue 2
The two sides
Montpellier carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.38 for Grenoble. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Montpellier and 0.73 for Grenoble. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Montpellier rate 0.57 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Grenoble rate 0.56 and 1.46.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Montpellier a 1.4% chance of the title and Grenoble 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Montpellier the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Montpellier against 0.73 for Grenoble. Montpellier's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.46 for Grenoble.