9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Montpellier vs Grenoble Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Referee: Pierre Retail, France
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Montpellier 2-0 Grenoble.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Montpellier, 32% draw, 23% Grenoble — fair odds of 2.22, 3.13 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Montpellier at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Montpellier98%Draw2%Grenoble0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Yohann Magnin
⚽Nicolas Pays
33'
Julien Laporte
43'
56'
🔁Clement Vidalout: farouq limouri
Nordan Mukiele
65'
🔁Noah Vidalout: Daryll Benlahlou
69'
🔁Daylam Meddahout: Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou
69'
70'
🔁Yvann Maconout: Jean-Guy Akpa Akpro
71'
🔁Yohann Magninout: Lucas Bernadou
Alpha Sissoko
72'
🔁Théo Chennahiout: Hichem Abderrebi
79'
🔁Alpha Sissokoout: Naoufel El Hannach
80'
83'
🔁Samba Lele Dibaout: Kyliann Fofana
83'
🔁Ugo Bonnetout: Moussa Djitté
🔁Nordan Mukieleout: Yassine Benhattab
85'
85'
farouq limouri
87'
Mael Corboz
87'
Baptiste Mouazan
⚽Mamadou Camaraassist: Daryll Benlahlou
90+1'

Match stats — Montpellier vs Grenoble

57%Possession43%
19Shots16
6On target5
7Corners7
1.52xG1.43

Goals against chances

Montpellier2 from 1.52 xGabout what the chances were worth
Grenoble0 from 1.43 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Montpellier 4-2-3-1
  • 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
  • 58A. SissokoD
  • 15J. LaporteD
  • 27D. MeddahD
  • 17T. Sainte-LuceD
  • 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
  • 5F. TardieuM
  • 18N. PaysM
  • 44T. ChennahiM
  • 19N. MukieleM
  • 11M. CamaraF
Substitutes
  • 90Gregory AyemM
  • 32Hichem AbderrebiM
  • 10Y. BenhattabM
  • 23Daryll BenlahlouF
  • 3Naoufel El HannachD
  • 1M. MichelG
  • 6Y. MouangaD
  • 77EversonM
Coach: Z. Camara
Grenoble 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. OllieroG
  • 97Y. MaçonD
  • 43A. PelonD
  • 5C. VidalD
  • 27M. XantippeD
  • 6Y. MagninM
  • 19N. ZahuiM
  • 30S. DibaM
  • 14M. CorbozM
  • 10B. MouazanM
  • 12U. BonnetF
Substitutes
  • 8L. BernadouM
  • 16B. AllainG
  • 92J. Akpa AkproM
  • 17L. CerriF
  • 23D. HoogewerfF
  • 2M. DjittéF
  • 47K. FofanaF
  • 21Owen KouassiD
  • 3F. LimouriD
Coach: O. Frapolli

Form going into Montpellier vs Grenoble

Montpellier

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Reims18 September 2026
  • W1-0PAU11 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Saint Etienne5 September 2026
  • D0-0Boulogne28 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Dunkerque21 August 2026

Grenoble

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Clermont Foot18 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Rodez11 September 2026
  • L1-2Annecy4 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Laval28 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Saint Etienne22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Montpellier scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Montpellier had two goals or fewer.
  • Grenoble scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Montpellier12732189+924
17Grenoble123271322-911

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Montpellier vs Grenoble

  • 17 April 2026Montpellier 2–1 GrenobleLigue 2
  • 13 December 2025Grenoble 1–1 MontpellierLigue 2

Leading scorers: Montpellier and Grenoble

Montpellier

GoalsAssists

  • N. Pays52
  • Lacine Megnan-Pave42

Grenoble

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Montpellier beat Grenoble 2–0. The model had made a win for Montpellier its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Nicolas Pays 33' for Montpellier, Mamadou Camara 90+1' for Montpellier. On expected goals it finished 1.52–1.43.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Montpellier a 38.9% chance to finish in the top four: 43.6% after a win, 36.2% after a draw, 31.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.6%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.

For Grenoble the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 20.3% going in: 14.0% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.0%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Montpellier v Grenoble has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 42% / 32% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 45% / 32% / 23%: the biggest move is Montpellier's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Montpellier win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw32%=
  3. Grenoble win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.