PAU vs Laval Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: PAU 3-2 Laval.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% PAU, 27% draw, 28% Laval — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
PAU at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PAU vs Laval
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. MaubleuG
- 2T. PouillyD
- 29G. PaquiezD
- 23A. BriançonD
- 88A. BambaD
- 97A. AbdallahD
- 6C. FallM
- 21J. BenetM
- 19T. SaettelM
- 7H. BenaliF
- 9B. LeyeF
- 39M. TourraineD
- 27L. GadegbekuM
- 10B. BrahimiM
- 8S. BasseD
- 56Abdoulaye MbayeF
- 22R. BahengD
- 5L. RajotM
- 30E. SallesG
- 18J. SebasF
- 1M. HautboisG
- 23E. MoutonD
- 24S. BaneD
- 18A. LôD
- 35Joseph SambD
- 6S. SannaM
- 21Alessio BeaudouinM
- 22J. GaudinM
- 31M. HoudayerM
- 28A. KantéF
- 20E. ClavreulF
- 11T. DagoF
- 40L. DroyauxG
- 7C. GourichyM
- 5J. MaggiottiM
- 14C. MandoukiM
- 33S. MellierM
- 34A. MoussaouiF
- 3W. BiandaD
- 29M. SidibeM
Form going into PAU vs Laval
PAU
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Dunkerque18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Montpellier11 September 2026
- D1-1Sochaux4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Rodez28 August 2026
- L0-1Nancy21 August 2026
Laval
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Sochaux18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Dijon11 September 2026
- L1-2RED Star FC 934 September 2026
- L0-3Grenoble28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Metz22 August 2026
What these results say
- PAU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PAU had two goals or fewer.
- Laval did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Laval conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Laval scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | PAU | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 18 | Laval | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PAU vs Laval
- 30 January 2026Laval 0–1 PAULigue 2
- 23 September 2025PAU 1–0 LavalLigue 2
- 31 January 2025PAU 1–1 LavalLigue 2
- 27 September 2024Laval 3–1 PAULigue 2
- 20 April 2024PAU 3–0 LavalLigue 2
- 16 December 2023Laval 1–1 PAULigue 2
Leading scorers: PAU and Laval
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye41
Laval
GoalsAssists
- M. Houdayer40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PAU beat Laval 3–2. The model had made a win for PAU its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Anthony Briançon 18' for PAU, Mathys Houdayer 21' for Laval, Babacar Leye 55' for PAU, Hacene Benali 76' for PAU, Trevis Dago 90' for Laval. Sent off: Julien Maggiotti (Laval) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 1.94–1.81.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave PAU a 28.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.2% after a win, 32.3% after a draw, 34.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.2%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.
For Laval the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 60.1% going in: 51.6% after a win, 61.3% after a draw, 64.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.8%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on PAU v Laval has moved
First published on 25 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is PAU's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- PAU win45%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Laval win28%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.