Nancy
vs
Guingamp
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Nancy 2–1 Guingamp
The model makes it 40% Nancy, 29% draw, 31% Guingamp — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nancy 1.57, Guingamp 1.25.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nancy vs Guingamp
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nancy at 40% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nancy vs Guingamp
Nancy
- W4-3away to Rodez18 September 2026
- L1-2Reims11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Nantes7 September 2026
- W2-0Dunkerque28 August 2026
- W1-0away to PAU21 August 2026
Guingamp
- L1-3RED Star FC 9319 September 2026
- W2-1Annecy12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Reims5 September 2026
- D3-3Nantes29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sochaux21 August 2026
What these results say
- Nancy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nancy | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nancy vs Guingamp
- 19 January 2026Nancy 0–3 GuingampLigue 2
- 3 October 2025Guingamp 2–2 NancyLigue 2
- 19 March 2022Guingamp 3–1 NancyLigue 2
- 16 October 2021Nancy 2–1 GuingampLigue 2
- 17 July 2021Nancy 2–2 GuingampFriendlies Clubs
- 16 January 2021Guingamp 0–0 NancyLigue 2
Leading scorers: Nancy and Guingamp
Nancy
- P. Meïssa Ba2 goals1 assists
Guingamp
- B. Bokangu4 goals
- D. Gomis2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nancy carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.35 for Guingamp. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Nancy and 1.25 for Guingamp. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nancy rate 0.61 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guingamp rate 0.64 and 1.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nancy a 0.2% chance of the title and Guingamp 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nancy the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Nancy against 1.25 for Guingamp. Nancy's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.75 for Guingamp.