9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Nancy vs Guingamp Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Marcel Picot, Nancy
Referee: Gabriel Henry, France
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Nancy 1-0 Guingamp.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Nancy, 27% draw, 31% Guingamp — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nancy at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nancy3%Draw92%Guingamp5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Walid Bouabdeli
45+2'
55'
Jeovanni Dianganga
Kouroufia Kebe
55'
56'
Amine Hemia
64'
🔁Samir Ben Brahimout: Teddy Andami Averlant
65'
🔁Florent Sanchez Da Silvaout: Amadou Samoura
65'
🔁Brandon Bokanguout: Stanislas Kielt
🔁Nordine Kandilout: Zakaria Fdaouch
65'
Kouroufia Kebe
71'
74'
Tanguy Ahile
🔁Pape Meissa Baout: Logan Ndenbe
74'
🔁Elydjah Mendyout: Jeremy Gelin
75'
75'
🔁Tanguy Ahileout: Tom Ducrocq
77'
Albin Demouchy
🔁Walid Bouabdeliout: Ibrahim cisse
83'
🔁El Hadari Raheriniainaout: Chafik El Hansar
83'
90+4'
Albin Demouchy
⚽Zakaria Fdaouch (pen)
90+6'

Match stats — Nancy vs Guingamp

54%Possession46%
17Shots8
7On target2
4Corners4
2.39xG0.5

Goals against chances

Nancy1 from 2.39 xGless than the chances were worth
Guingamp0 from 0.50 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nancy 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. BasilioG
  • 4N. Fernandez-VelizD
  • 77Y. NahounouD
  • 21E. MendyD
  • 44E. TacafredD
  • 6K. KebeM
  • 8W. BouabdelliM
  • 9I. HousniM
  • 70N. KandilM
  • 12El HadariM
  • 5P. Meïssa BaF
Substitutes
  • 45C. El HansarM
  • 7Z. FdaouchF
  • 17Mamadou Fofana IIM
  • 25J. GélinM
  • 30G. LembetG
  • 22L. NdenbeD
  • 14N. Saint-RufD
  • 11I. CisseF
  • 33Lucas SchneppM
Coach: O. Tanchot
Guingamp 4-4-2
  • 16Adrián OrtoláG
  • 2E. KoffiD
  • 36A. DemouchyD
  • 24J. DiangangaD
  • 5T. OllilaD
  • 20S. Ben BrahimM
  • 4D. LouiserreM
  • 21T. AhileM
  • 8F. Da SilvaM
  • 10A. HemiaF
  • 22B. BokanguF
Substitutes
  • 17A. SamouraF
  • 32I. DiakiteM
  • 1T. BartoucheG
  • 11T. AverlantF
  • 25T. DucrocqM
  • 35N. FondjaD
  • 18S. KieltM
  • 31J. MatondoM
  • 3J. MatumonaD
Coach: S. Ripoll

Form going into Nancy vs Guingamp

Nancy

All competitions we cover

  • W4-3away to Rodez18 September 2026
  • L1-2Reims11 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Nantes7 September 2026
  • W2-0Dunkerque28 August 2026
  • W1-0away to PAU21 August 2026

Guingamp

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3RED Star FC 9319 September 2026
  • W2-1Annecy12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Reims5 September 2026
  • D3-3Nantes29 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Sochaux21 August 2026

What these results say

  • Nancy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Guingamp conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Guingamp failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Guingamp scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Nancy12813179+825
11Guingamp124261618-214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nancy vs Guingamp

  • 19 January 2026Nancy 0–3 GuingampLigue 2
  • 3 October 2025Guingamp 2–2 NancyLigue 2
  • 19 March 2022Guingamp 3–1 NancyLigue 2
  • 16 October 2021Nancy 2–1 GuingampLigue 2
  • 17 July 2021Nancy 2–2 GuingampFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 January 2021Guingamp 0–0 NancyLigue 2

Leading scorers: Nancy and Guingamp

Nancy

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Guingamp

GoalsAssists

  • B. Bokangu40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nancy beat Guingamp 1–0. The model had made a win for Nancy its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Zakaria Fdaouch (penalty) 90+6' for Nancy. Sent off: Kouroufia Kebe (Nancy) 71', Albin Demouchy (Guingamp) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 2.39–0.50.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nancy a 13.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.5% after a win, 15.0% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.5%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

For Guingamp the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.2% going in: 18.9% after a win, 24.8% after a draw, 29.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.1%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nancy v Guingamp has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Nancy's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Nancy win42%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Guingamp win31%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.