Slavia Sofia
vs
Septemvri Sofia
First League prediction
The model makes it 76% Slavia Sofia, 17% draw, 7% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 1.32, 5.88 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 2.20, Septemvri Sofia 0.53.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Slavia Sofia
- W3-0away to Botev Vratsa10 August 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Arda Kardzhali24 July 2026
- D0-0CSKA Sofia20 July 2026
Septemvri Sofia
- L0-3CSKA Sofia9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Levski Sofia1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 July 2026
- D1-1Arda Kardzhali18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia
- 4 July 2026Septemvri Sofia 2–3 Slavia SofiaFriendlies Clubs
- 6 May 2026Slavia Sofia 2–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 10 April 2026Slavia Sofia 1–2 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 1 November 2025Septemvri Sofia 0–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 6 May 2025Septemvri Sofia 3–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 1 April 2025Slavia Sofia 2–3 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
A clear gap in the ratings
Slavia Sofia carry a model rating of 6.48 against 5.8 for Septemvri Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Slavia Sofia D-L-D-W; Septemvri Sofia D-L-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Slavia Sofia and 0.53 for Septemvri Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Sofia rate 0.37 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Septemvri Sofia rate 0.38 and 3.14.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 37% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (16%), 1-0 (14%), 3-0 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Sofia the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for Slavia Sofia against 0.53 for Septemvri Sofia. Slavia Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.37/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/3.14 for Septemvri Sofia.