Regular Season - 4 · 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Clermont Foot vs Sochaux Ligue 2 prediction

Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand

The model makes it 89% Clermont Foot, 8% draw, 3% Sochaux — fair odds of 1.12, 12.50 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Clermont Foot 3.32, Sochaux 0.52.

Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

39%
Both teams to score
74%
Over 2.5 goals
26%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines3-0 13%2-0 12%4-0 11%

Form going into this match

Clermont Foot

  • D0-0Reims8 August 2026

Sochaux

  • L0-3Saint Etienne8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Clermont Foot10100001
18Sochaux100103-30

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Head-to-head: Clermont Foot vs Sochaux

  • 22 December 2024Sochaux 0–0 Clermont FootCoupe de France
  • 20 December 2022Clermont Foot 0–1 SochauxFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 May 2021Clermont Foot 3–1 SochauxLigue 2
  • 8 January 2021Sochaux 0–0 Clermont FootLigue 2
  • 6 March 2020Clermont Foot 2–0 SochauxLigue 2

A clear gap in the ratings

Clermont Foot carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.2 for Sochaux. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): Clermont Foot D; Sochaux L.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 3.32 goals for Clermont Foot and 0.52 for Sochaux. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Clermont Foot rate 0.94 in attack and 0.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sochaux rate 0.51 and 1.87.

That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 39% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (13%), 2-0 (12%), 4-0 (11%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Clermont Foot the highest probability at 89%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.32 expected goals for Clermont Foot against 0.52 for Sochaux. Clermont Foot's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.87 for Sochaux.