CSKA 1948
vs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
First League prediction
The model makes it 81% CSKA 1948, 14% draw, 5% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.23, 7.14 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (17%).
Expected goals: CSKA 1948 2.41, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.44.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
CSKA 1948
- W3-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia8 August 2026
- W2-1Arda Kardzhali31 July 2026
- W2-1Botev Vratsa25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Spartak Varna17 July 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L0-2away to Levski Sofia7 August 2026
- L0-1away to Spartak Varna3 August 2026
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Ludogorets18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 5 March 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–5 CSKA 1948First League
- 20 September 2025CSKA 1948 4–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 25 May 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 CSKA 1948First League
- 8 March 2025CSKA 1948 2–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 19 September 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–2 CSKA 1948First League
- 21 April 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 CSKA 1948First League
A clear gap in the ratings
CSKA 1948 carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.05 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): CSKA 1948 D-W-W-W; Lokomotiv Plovdiv L-W-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.41 goals for CSKA 1948 and 0.44 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA 1948 rate 0.75 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lokomotiv Plovdiv rate 0.31 and 1.70.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 33% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (17%), 1-0 (14%), 3-0 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA 1948 the highest probability at 81%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.41 expected goals for CSKA 1948 against 0.44 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. CSKA 1948's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.31/1.7 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.