CSKA 1948 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv First League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA 1948 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% CSKA 1948, 24% draw, 17% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA 1948 at 59% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 31A. BozhevG
- 2D. MedinaD
- 4A. HoffmannD
- 77E. FrancoM
- 22O. Gasevic
- 8M. ZemzemiM
- 33H. CuellarM
- 10B. TsonevM
- 30J. MeyerM
- 11G. RusevM
- 93M. DialloF
- 1P. Marinov
- 5B. BenamarD
- 9A. IlievF
- 14K. StrinskiM
- 19M. Boychev
- 34P. VitanovM
- 71D. TarasenkoF
- 96D. GrivicD
- 1B. MilosavljevicG
- 2A. CovaD
- 4A. ChindrisD
- 13Lucas RyanD
- 5T. PavlovD
- 12E. AliM
- 7S. IdrizM
- 22I. IvanovM
- 39P. UmarbaevM
- 3D. Ali
- 29C. LongvilleF
- 6M. TrdanM
- 9A. VelevF
- 10Y. DzhelepovF
- 11R. LeijtenM
- 26D. KirashkiD
- 30A. AleksandrovM
- 40P. ZovkoG
- 44M. PetrovicD
Form going into CSKA 1948 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
CSKA 1948
- L0-1away to Septemvri Sofia23 August 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L0-1Arda Kardzhali24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 5 March 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–5 CSKA 1948First League
- 20 September 2025CSKA 1948 4–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 25 May 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 CSKA 1948First League
- 8 March 2025CSKA 1948 2–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 19 September 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–2 CSKA 1948First League
- 21 April 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 CSKA 1948First League
Leading scorers: CSKA 1948 and Lokomotiv Plovdiv
CSKA 1948
- Frédéric Maciel1 goal
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
No player in First League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.