Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali First League prediction & result
Final score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 Arda Kardzhali.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 29% draw, 43% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arda Kardzhali at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1Bojan MilosavljevićG
- 2Adrián CovaD
- 4Andrei ChindrişD
- 13Lucas RyanD
- 5Todor PavlovD
- 22Ivaylo IvanovM
- 12Efe AliM
- 7Sevi IdrizM
- 39Parvizdzhon UmarbaevM
- 99Julien LamyM
- 29Christ LongvilleF
- 11Ryan Yang LeijtenM
- 6Miha TrdanM
- 30Alexander AlexandrovM
- 44Milan PetrovicD
- 3Dalil AliD
- 40Petar ZovkoG
- 26Denis KirashkiD
- 9Axel VelevF
- 10Yoan DzhelepovF
- 1Anatoli GospodinovG
- 21Vyacheslav VelevD
- 24Martin PaskalevD
- 5Viktor LyubenovD
- 6Viktor PopovD
- 80Lachezar KotevM
- 8Dominik YankovM
- 10Svetoslav KovachevM
- 91Stanislav IvanovM
- 99Birsent KaragarenM
- 16Preslav BachevF
- 9Georgi NikolovF
- 4Idowu David AkintolaM
- 18Simeon VasilevD
- 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
- 11Atanas KabovM
- 22Yanko GeorgievG
- 26Burak AkandzhaM
Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L1-2Dunav Ruse16 August 2026
- L0-2away to Levski Sofia7 August 2026
- L0-1away to Spartak Varna3 August 2026
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Ludogorets18 July 2026
Arda Kardzhali
- W3-1Lokomotiv Sofia17 August 2026
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194831 July 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia24 July 2026
- D1-1away to Septemvri Sofia18 July 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali
- 24 August 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 4 July 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–0 Arda KardzhaliFriendlies Clubs
- 16 May 2026Arda Kardzhali 4–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 8 May 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 30 April 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Arda KardzhaliCup
- 22 April 2026Arda Kardzhali 0–4 Lokomotiv PlovdivCup
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.