Groningen
vs
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 52% Groningen, 25% draw, 23% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Groningen 1.78, Fortuna Sittard 1.12.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Groningen
- W2-1Utrecht9 August 2026
Fortuna Sittard
- D2-2away to PSV Eindhoven8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard
- 25 January 2026Groningen 1–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 25 October 2025Fortuna Sittard 1–2 GroningenEredivisie
- 16 March 2025Groningen 1–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 26 October 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 8 February 2024Groningen 0–0 Fortuna SittardKNVB Beker
- 2 April 2023Fortuna Sittard 3–1 GroningenEredivisie
Leading scorers
Groningen
No league goals recorded yet.
Fortuna Sittard
- É. Michut1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Groningen carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.59 for Fortuna Sittard. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Groningen W; Fortuna Sittard D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Groningen and 1.12 for Fortuna Sittard. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Groningen rate 0.76 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Sittard rate 0.74 and 1.24.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Groningen the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Groningen against 1.12 for Fortuna Sittard. Groningen's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.24 for Fortuna Sittard.