Slavia Praha
vs
Plzen
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Slavia Praha 2–1 Plzen
The model makes it 51% Slavia Praha, 26% draw, 23% Plzen — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Slavia Praha 2.10, Plzen 1.02.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Slavia Praha vs Plzen
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Slavia Praha wins, grey are draws, red are Plzen wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Praha at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Slavia Praha vs Plzen
Slavia Praha
- W2-0away to Teplice13 September 2026
- W4-0Zbrojovka Brno5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Sparta Praha30 August 2026
- D2-2Bohemians 190522 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slovan Liberec16 August 2026
Plzen
- L2-3Sigma Olomouc13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hradec Králové9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Artis5 September 2026
- D1-1Slovácko30 August 2026
- W3-2Zlin15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 20 |
| 10 | Plzen | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slavia Praha vs Plzen
- 24 May 2026Slavia Praha 3–0 PlzenCzech Liga
- 12 April 2026Slavia Praha 0–0 PlzenCzech Liga
- 9 November 2025Plzen 3–5 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 3 May 2025Slavia Praha 4–3 PlzenCzech Liga
- 23 February 2025Plzen 1–3 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 21 September 2024Slavia Praha 3–0 PlzenCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Slavia Praha and Plzen
Slavia Praha
- W. Nowak5 goals1 assists
- M. Chytil4 goals
- E. Ayaosi3 goals1 assists
Plzen
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Slavia Praha carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.7 for Plzen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Slavia Praha and 1.02 for Plzen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Praha rate 1.14 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Plzen rate 0.84 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slavia Praha a 72.2% chance of the title and Plzen 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for Slavia Praha against 1.02 for Plzen. Slavia Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.14/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.13 for Plzen.