Slavia Praha vs Plzen Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Slavia Praha 2-1 Plzen.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Slavia Praha, 26% draw, 22% Plzen — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Praha at 52% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slavia Praha vs Plzen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35Jakub MarkovičG
- 3Tomáš HolešD
- 27Tomáš VlčekD
- 2Štěpán ChaloupekD
- 14Samuel IsifeM
- 30Wiktor NowakM
- 23Michal SadílekM
- 39David JurásekM
- 20Emmanuel AyaosiF
- 10Danijel ŠturmF
- 25Tomáš ChorýF
- 17Lukáš ProvodM
- 32Pavel KačorM
- 16David MosesM
- 26Ivan SchranzF
- 42Mikuláš KonečnýD
- 29Nazar DomchakG
- 47David BarcotD
- 9Adam RajnohaM
- 45Jakub KolisekD
- 44Florian WiegeleG
- 2Tobias PališčákD
- 40Sampson DwehD
- 98Filip PrebslD
- 29Adam GabrielM
- 6Lukáš ČervM
- 17Patrik HrošovskýM
- 14Merchas DoskiM
- 99Amar MemićF
- 25Christophe KabongoF
- 12Alexandr SojkaF
- 7Salim Fago LawalF
- 80Prince Kwabena AduF
- 18Tomáš LadraF
- 5Karel SpáčilD
- 36Stefan PirgićM
- 30Viktor BaierG
- 3Denis VavroD
- 20Jiří PanošM
- 19Cheick SouaréM
Form going into Slavia Praha vs Plzen
Slavia Praha
Czech Liga
- W2-0away to Teplice13 September 2026
Plzen
Czech Liga
- L2-3Sigma Olomouc13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 28 |
| 9 | Plzen | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slavia Praha vs Plzen
- 24 May 2026Slavia Praha 3–0 PlzenCzech Liga
- 12 April 2026Slavia Praha 0–0 PlzenCzech Liga
- 9 November 2025Plzen 3–5 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 3 May 2025Slavia Praha 4–3 PlzenCzech Liga
- 23 February 2025Plzen 1–3 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Slavia Praha and Plzen
Slavia Praha
GoalsAssists
- W. Nowak51
- M. Chytil50
- E. Ayaosi42
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo50
- A. Memić43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Slavia Praha beat Plzen 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Slavia Praha at 52%. The goals: Amar Memić 64' for Plzen, Štěpán Chaloupek 74' for Slavia Praha, Tomáš Chorý (penalty) 90+11' for Slavia Praha. On expected goals it finished 1.53–0.82.
How the call on Slavia Praha v Plzen has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Slavia Praha's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Slavia Praha win52%▲ +4
- Draw26%=
- Plzen win22%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.