Sigma Olomouc
vs
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Sparta Praha
The model makes it 36% Sigma Olomouc, 27% draw, 37% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sigma Olomouc 1.64, Sparta Praha 1.66.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Sigma Olomouc wins, grey are draws, red are Sparta Praha wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha
Sigma Olomouc
- W3-2away to Plzen13 September 2026
- W3-0Bohemians 19055 September 2026
- L0-1away to Baník Ostrava29 August 2026
- W3-1Pardubice23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Slovácko15 August 2026
Sparta Praha
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
- W4-1Teplice15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sigma Olomouc | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 16 |
| 9 | Sparta Praha | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha
- 6 December 2025Sigma Olomouc 0–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 10 August 2025Sparta Praha 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 24 May 2025Sparta Praha 1–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 14 May 2025Sigma Olomouc 3–1 Sparta PrahaCup
- 1 March 2025Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 27 September 2024Sparta Praha 2–3 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha
Sigma Olomouc
- V. Sejk3 goals2 assists
- A. Ghali3 goals1 assists
- P. Baráth3 goals1 assists
Sparta Praha
- J. Alcócer4 goals1 assists
- J. Mercado3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sigma Olomouc carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.8 for Sparta Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.66 for Sparta Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sigma Olomouc rate 0.91 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Praha rate 1.00 and 1.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sigma Olomouc, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sigma Olomouc a 2% chance of the title and Sparta Praha 0.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc against 1.66 for Sparta Praha. Sigma Olomouc's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.11 for Sparta Praha.