Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sigma Olomouc 0-3 Sparta Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Sigma Olomouc, 28% draw, 36% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sigma Olomouc at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 91Jan KoutnýG
- 2Abdoulaye SyllaD
- 33Matúš MalýD
- 3Louis LurvinkD
- 70Abubakar GhaliM
- 14Marko SoldoM
- 7Michal BeranM
- 4Léo BorgesM
- 39Dominik JanošekF
- 10Václav SejkF
- 24David TkáčF
- 22Matěj HadašD
- 17John Paul DembeF
- 11Hilmir Rafn MikaelssonF
- 8Jiří SpáčilM
- 6Jáchym ŠípM
- 98Matúš HruškaG
- 31Anthony PavlešićG
- 29Anton EkerothD
- 26Stéphane NoumbissieD
- 44Jakub SurovčíkG
- 3Pavel KadeřábekD
- 22Loïc Mbe SohD
- 6Tobias Kvalvagnes GuddalD
- 11Matěj RynešD
- 28Roman MacekM
- 38Hugo SochurekM
- 17John MercadoM
- 10Adam KarabecM
- 27Ebrima SinghatehM
- 14Jonatan Braut BrunesF
- 5Santiago EnemeM
- 31Matěj JurásekM
- 30Jaroslav ZelenýD
- 25Ki-Jana HoeverD
- 26Patrik VydraM
- 47Krisztián HegyiG
- 19Adam ŠevinskýD
- 15Viktor VitályosD
- 21Joao GrimaldoF
Form going into Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha
Sigma Olomouc
Czech Liga
- W3-2away to Plzen13 September 2026
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 21 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha
- 6 December 2025Sigma Olomouc 0–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 10 August 2025Sparta Praha 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 24 May 2025Sparta Praha 1–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 14 May 2025Sigma Olomouc 3–1 Sparta PrahaCup
- 1 March 2025Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha
Sigma Olomouc
GoalsAssists
- V. Sejk43
- A. Ghali41
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Braut Brunes52
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sparta Praha won 3–0 at Sigma Olomouc. The goals: J. Mercado 25' for Sparta Praha, M. Soldo (own goal) 67' for Sparta Praha, E. Singhateh 88' for Sparta Praha. On expected goals it finished 0.86–1.91.
How the call on Sigma Olomouc v Sparta Praha has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 28% / 36%: the biggest move is Sigma Olomouc's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Sigma Olomouc win36%▼ −3
- Draw28%=
- Sparta Praha win36%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.