MTK Budapest
vs
Gyori ETO FC
NB I prediction
Our model says: MTK Budapest 2–1 Gyori ETO FC
The model makes it 38% MTK Budapest, 28% draw, 34% Gyori ETO FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: MTK Budapest 1.64, Gyori ETO FC 1.52.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: MTK Budapest vs Gyori ETO FC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are MTK Budapest wins, grey are draws, red are Gyori ETO FC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MTK Budapest at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into MTK Budapest vs Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
- L1-2Kisvarda FC5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Debreceni VSC28 August 2026
- W2-1Nyiregyhaza22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ujpest15 August 2026
- L2-3Puskas Academy7 August 2026
Gyori ETO FC
- W3-2Budapest Honved6 September 2026
- L0-3Ferencvarosi TC3 September 2026
- D1-1away to Kisvarda FC30 August 2026
- W3-0Zalaegerszegi TE23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Debreceni VSC16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | MTK Budapest | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 |
| 1 | Gyori ETO FC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: MTK Budapest vs Gyori ETO FC
- 13 March 2026Gyori ETO FC 0–0 MTK BudapestNB I
- 29 November 2025Gyori ETO FC 3–0 MTK BudapestNB I
- 17 August 2025MTK Budapest 2–7 Gyori ETO FCNB I
- 29 March 2025Gyori ETO FC 2–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 23 November 2024MTK Budapest 2–2 Gyori ETO FCNB I
- 11 August 2024Gyori ETO FC 1–2 MTK BudapestNB I
Leading scorers: MTK Budapest and Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi4 goals2 assists
- G. Jurek4 goals1 assists
Gyori ETO FC
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
MTK Budapest carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.52 for Gyori ETO FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for MTK Budapest and 1.52 for Gyori ETO FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MTK Budapest rate 0.72 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gyori ETO FC rate 0.73 and 1.40.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gyori ETO FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MTK Budapest a 5.1% chance of the title and Gyori ETO FC 20.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MTK Budapest the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for MTK Budapest against 1.52 for Gyori ETO FC. MTK Budapest's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.4 for Gyori ETO FC.