MTK Budapest vs Gyori ETO FC NB I prediction & result
Final score: MTK Budapest 1-2 Gyori ETO FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% MTK Budapest, 28% draw, 35% Gyori ETO FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts MTK Budapest at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — MTK Budapest vs Gyori ETO FC
Line-ups
- 1P. DemjénG
- 26V. ArmalasD
- 4I. BeriashviliD
- 55S. RadićD
- 13M. TimoteusD
- 6M. KataM
- 80Adrian ZeljkovićM
- 11G. JurekM
- 8A. G. ZuborM
- 77G. KomáromiM
- 20Zalán Márk KerezsiF
- 27P. KovácsD
- 9M. KlauszF
- 17K. HinoraM
- 24T. FadgyasG
- 29S. SzuhodovszkiM
- 2B. VarjuD
- 7D. ZsóriF
- 30Sámuel Barnabás BakóF
- 37Adam NyersF
- 99S. PetrášG
- 26Ã. UmathumD
- 37N. UrblíkD
- 24M. KrpićD
- 23D. ŠtefuljD
- 14M. SzépM
- 7P. AgbaM
- 34V. ĐukanovićM
- 19J. BennetteM
- 10C. BumbaM
- 9L. KulenovićF
- 77Élan RicardoM
- 96M. HuszárF
- 27L. BalogunD
- 90K. BánátiM
- 20B. BíróD
- 64D. BrecskaG
- 80Ž. GavrićF
- 2Ș. VlădoiuD
- 29N. RotaruF
Form going into MTK Budapest vs Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
NB I
- L1-2Kisvarda FC5 September 2026
Gyori ETO FC
NB I
- W3-2Budapest Honved6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 12 |
| 1 | Gyori ETO FC | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: MTK Budapest vs Gyori ETO FC
- 13 March 2026Gyori ETO FC 0–0 MTK BudapestNB I
- 29 November 2025Gyori ETO FC 3–0 MTK BudapestNB I
- 17 August 2025MTK Budapest 2–7 Gyori ETO FCNB I
- 29 March 2025Gyori ETO FC 2–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 23 November 2024MTK Budapest 2–2 Gyori ETO FCNB I
Leading scorers: MTK Budapest and Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
GoalsAssists
- G. Jurek51
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi43
- I. Bognár22
Gyori ETO FC
GoalsAssists
- V. Đukanović30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gyori ETO FC won 2–1 at MTK Budapest. The model had leaned towards a win for MTK Budapest at 37% and given a win for Gyori ETO FC 35%. The goals: M. Szép 53' for Gyori ETO FC, István Bognár 64' for MTK Budapest, Peter Agba 83' for Gyori ETO FC.
How the call on MTK Budapest v Gyori ETO FC has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Gyori ETO FC's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- MTK Budapest win37%▼ −4
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Gyori ETO FC win35%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.