FK Jablonec vs Zlin Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: FK Jablonec 1-1 Zlin.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% FK Jablonec, 28% draw, 25% Zlin — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Jablonec at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FK Jablonec vs Zlin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jan HanušG
- 18Martin CedidlaD
- 57Filip NovákD
- 15Dušan PavlovićD
- 7Vakhtang ChanturishviliM
- 13Richard SedláčekM
- 25Sebastian NebylaM
- 16Hugo AhlM
- 17Saidou Alioum MoubarakF
- 19Jan ChramostaF
- 24Dominik HollýF
- 44Lamin JawoF
- 36Garang KuolM
- 8Filip ZorvanM
- 27Filip VechetaF
- 20Jiří SlámaD
- 33Michal KukučkaG
- 14Daniel SoučekD
- 6Nelson OkekeM
- 21Matěj PolidarM
- 17Stanislav DostalG
- 35Ondřej KukučkaD
- 24Jakub ČernínD
- 39Antonín KřapkaD
- 22Michal FukalaD
- 23Miloš KopečnýM
- 19Cletus NombilM
- 8David MachalíkM
- 82Marián PišojaM
- 3Stefan JiríF
- 9Daniel ŠmigaF
- 21David GrygeraD
- 53Tomas HellebrandM
- 88Tomáš PoznarF
- 45Prince Mbatshi MukubaD
- 6Joss DidibaM
- 34Milan KnoblochG
- 26Michal CupakM
- 13Filip DornakM
- 20Frank AppiahM
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Zlin
FK Jablonec
Czech Liga
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
Zlin
Czech Liga
- L1-2Hradec Králové13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 16 | Zlin | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Zlin
- 4 April 2026Zlin 0–3 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 1 November 2025FK Jablonec 1–3 ZlinCzech Liga
- 25 May 2024FK Jablonec 1–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 20 April 2024FK Jablonec 0–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 11 November 2023Zlin 1–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
The result against the call
FK Jablonec and Zlin drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FK Jablonec at 47% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Daniel Šmiga 3' for Zlin, Garang Kuol 90' for FK Jablonec. On expected goals it finished 1.13–0.39.
How the call on FK Jablonec v Zlin has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is FK Jablonec's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- FK Jablonec win47%▼ −2
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Zlin win25%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.