FK Jablonec
vs
Zlin
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Jablonec 1–0 Zlin
The model makes it 48% FK Jablonec, 28% draw, 24% Zlin — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FK Jablonec 1.87, Zlin 0.99.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FK Jablonec vs Zlin
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are FK Jablonec wins, grey are draws, red are Zlin wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Jablonec at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Zlin
FK Jablonec
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bohemians 19052 September 2026
- L0-2away to Teplice30 August 2026
Zlin
- L1-2Hradec Králové13 September 2026
- L1-3Teplice6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Zbrojovka Brno29 August 2026
- L0-1Slovan Liberec22 August 2026
- L2-3away to Plzen15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 16 | Zlin | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Zlin
- 4 April 2026Zlin 0–3 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 1 November 2025FK Jablonec 1–3 ZlinCzech Liga
- 25 May 2024FK Jablonec 1–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 20 April 2024FK Jablonec 0–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 11 November 2023Zlin 1–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 6 May 2023Zlin 1–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
Leading scorers: FK Jablonec and Zlin
FK Jablonec
- M. Cedidla3 goals
Zlin
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FK Jablonec carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.46 for Zlin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for FK Jablonec and 0.99 for Zlin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Jablonec rate 0.76 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zlin rate 0.69 and 1.51.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FK Jablonec a 1.5% chance of the title and Zlin 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Jablonec the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for FK Jablonec against 0.99 for Zlin. FK Jablonec's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.51 for Zlin.