19 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result

Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Uherske Hradiste
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Slovácko 2-2 Baník Ostrava.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Slovácko, 29% draw, 24% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Slovácko at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slovácko5%Draw93%Baník Ostrava2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽Michal Frydrych (pen)
46'
Roan Nogha
⚽Gigli Ndefe
49'
⚽Patrik Blahútassist: Marek Havlík
51'
56'
🔁Filip Kubalaout: Václav Jurečka
56'
🔁Abdullahi Beweneout: Rhodri Smith
Jocelin Behiratche
58'
🔁David Puškáčout: Jan Fiala
60'
61'
🔁Maksym Diachukout: Yevgeniy Skyba
🔁Lukáš Vorlickýout: Pavel Juroška
74'
🔁Gigli Ndefeout: Adam Alabi
74'
75'
🔁Artúr Musákout: Filip Šancl
75'
🔁Dantaye Gilbertout: Matúš Kmeť
🔁Tihomir Kostadinovout: Gibril Sosseh
83'
🔁Marek Havlíkout: Alan Marinelli
83'
87'
⚽Filip Šancl
89'
Matúš Kmeť
90+3'
Yevgeniy Skyba

Match stats — Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava

51%Possession49%
13Shots15
3On target7
2Corners4
1.77xG2.72

Goals against chances

Slovácko2 from 1.77 xGabout what the chances were worth
Baník Ostrava2 from 2.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Slovácko
  • 29Milan HečaG
  • 21Simon SloncikD
  • 22Jocelin BehiratcheD
  • 4Andrej StojchevskiD
  • 2Gigli NdefeM
  • 10Michal TrávníkM
  • 26Tihomir KostadinovM
  • 15Patrik BlahútM
  • 20Marek HavlíkF
  • 72Lukáš VorlickýF
  • 30David PuškáčF
Substitutes
  • 18Jan FialaF
  • 14Adam AlabiD
  • 77Pavel JuroškaM
  • 16Gibril SossehM
  • 9Alan MarinelliF
  • 34Pavel HalouskaG
  • 28Leos PriorD
  • 19Tomas KralD
  • 17Filip HruskaM
Coach: Jan Jelinek
Baník Ostrava 3-4-2-1
  • 23Martin JedličkaG
  • 17Michal FrydrychD
  • 83Roan NoghaD
  • 16Maksym DiachukD
  • 8Aboubacar TraoreM
  • 5Jiří BoulaM
  • 55Artúr MusákM
  • 34Abdullahi BeweneM
  • 28Filip KubalaF
  • 7Dantaye GilbertF
  • 22Vit SkrkonF
Substitutes
  • 3Rhodri SmithD
  • 15Václav JurečkaF
  • 44Yevgeniy SkybaD
  • 81Matúš KmeťD
  • 19Filip ŠanclM
  • 1Viktor BudinskýG
  • 37Matěj ChalušD
  • 95Daniel HolzerM
  • 21Michal KohútM
Coach: Roman Skuhravy

Form going into Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava

Slovácko

Czech Liga

  • L0-2away to Bohemians 190512 September 2026

Baník Ostrava

Czech Liga

  • L1-2Pardubice13 September 2026
  • L0-3away to FK Jablonec9 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Slovácko121471123-127
13Baník Ostrava11326718-1111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava

  • 12 May 2026Slovácko 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 1 February 2026Slovácko 2–2 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 24 August 2025Baník Ostrava 2–0 SlováckoCzech Liga
  • 14 December 2024Baník Ostrava 3–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
  • 18 August 2024Slovácko 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga

The result against the call

Slovácko and Baník Ostrava drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Slovácko at 47% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Michal Frydrych (penalty) 25' for Baník Ostrava, Gigli Ndefe 49' for Slovácko, Patrik Blahút 51' for Slovácko, Filip Šancl 87' for Baník Ostrava. On expected goals it finished 1.77–2.72.

How the call on Slovácko v Baník Ostrava has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 37% / 31% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 29% / 24%: the biggest move is Slovácko's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Slovácko win47%▲ +10
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Baník Ostrava win24%▼ −8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.