Como vs RB Leipzig UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Como 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Como, 26% draw, 29% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Como at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Como vs RB Leipzig
Line-ups
- 1J. ButezG
- 27Yan CoutoD
- 4Jacobo Ramón NaverosD
- 99T. ChalobahD
- 3Álex ValleD
- 7L. da CunhaM
- 6Luis MillaM
- 11Assane DiaoM
- 10N. PazM
- 20M. BaturinaM
- 9T. DouvikasF
- 13A. DossenaD
- 16KaikiD
- 90M. KeanF
- 2M. KempfD
- 30M. LiberaliM
- 5M. PerroneM
- 21S. RicciM
- 17Jesús RodríguezF
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 26M. VandevoordtG
- 17R. BakuD
- 4W. OrbánD
- 23C. LukebaD
- 22D. RaumD
- 30A. MaksimoviÄM
- 21N. El AynaouiM
- 13N. SeiwaldM
- 7A. NusaM
- 9Marc GuiuF
- 28C. NkunkuF
- 40RômuloF
- 8A. OuédraogoM
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 16L. KlostermannD
- 37Benno KaltefleiterM
- 39B. HenrichsD
- 10B. GrudaF
- 27T. GomisF
- 35Max FinkgräfeD
Form going into Como vs RB Leipzig
Como
All competitions we cover
- W4-1away to Genoa4 September 2026
- W2-1away to Napoli30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Udinese22 August 2026
RB Leipzig
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Werder Bremen5 September 2026
- W3-0Borussia Mönchengladbach29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 6 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Como beat RB Leipzig 4–1. The model had made a win for Como its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Martin Baturina 15' for Como, Anastasios Douvikas 38' for Como, Assane Diao Diaoune 54' for Como, Andrija Maksimović 58' for RB Leipzig, Maximo Perrone 90' for Como.
How the call on Como v RB Leipzig has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 27% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is Como's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Como win45%▲ +4
- Draw26%▼ −1
- RB Leipzig win29%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.