Cukaricki
vs
Macva
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Cukaricki 1–0 Macva
The model makes it 46% Cukaricki, 29% draw, 25% Macva — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cukaricki 1.66, Macva 0.94.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cukaricki vs Macva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cukaricki at 46% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cukaricki vs Macva
Cukaricki
- L1-2away to Železničar Pančevo20 September 2026
- D1-1Novi Pazar12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Radnik Surdulica5 September 2026
- L0-5Vojvodina29 August 2026
- L0-4away to FK Crvena Zvezda23 August 2026
Macva
- L1-2Mladost Lucani20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Železničar Pančevo11 September 2026
- D0-0Radnicki 19235 September 2026
- D1-1away to Novi Pazar29 August 2026
- W1-0Radnicki NIS22 August 2026
What these results say
- Cukaricki did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cukaricki conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cukaricki had three goals or more.
- Macva failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Macva had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cukaricki vs Macva
- 21 March 2021Macva 1–2 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 26 September 2020Cukaricki 4–0 MacvaSuper Liga
- 20 June 2020Cukaricki 3–1 MacvaSuper Liga
- 3 November 2019Macva 0–0 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 1 December 2018Macva 1–0 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 3 August 2018Cukaricki 1–0 MacvaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Cukaricki and Macva
Cukaricki
- U. Miladinović4 goals3 assists
Macva
- M. Vidakov3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cukaricki carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.01 for Macva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Cukaricki and 0.94 for Macva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cukaricki rate 0.51 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Macva rate 0.37 and 2.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cukaricki the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Cukaricki against 0.94 for Macva. Cukaricki's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/2.03 for Macva.