Cukaricki vs Macva Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: Cukaricki 2-2 Macva.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Cukaricki, 27% draw, 23% Macva — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Serbian SuperLiga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cukaricki at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cukaricki vs Macva
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 81V. ČarapićG
- 24N. StankovićD
- 23I. MaigaD
- 26M. ĐokovićD
- 3Z. ŠehovićD
- 72U. NikolićM
- 5M. DocićM
- 51Remy Rees-DottinM
- 10U. MiladinovićM
- 8L. MarkovićM
- 99Đ. JovanovićF
- 77A. BajovićM
- 20A. CisseM
- 12Lazar KaličaninG
- 73N. MiletićD
- 18Karel MustmaaF
- 50M. PavkovF
- 87Mateja ProkopijevićM
- 86Veljko RadosavljevićM
- 4N. TomovićD
- 89V. JovanovićG
- 17N. LainovićD
- 26U. DrezgićD
- 35Issa KoneD
- 33U. BlagojevićD
- 34Danilo KneževićM
- 8B. VraštanovićM
- 10M. ErgelašM
- 30Đorđe ĐorđićM
- 27L. PejovićM
- 99N. DelibasicF
- 23M. ZupanjacD
- 9M. VidakovF
- 4V. IlicD
- 28S. JovicG
- 11V. RakićM
- 12K. RakonicG
- 5Darko TerzićM
- 44N. StevanovićD
- 50B. MatićF
Form going into Cukaricki vs Macva
Cukaricki
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Železničar Pančevo20 September 2026
- D1-1Novi Pazar12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Radnik Surdulica5 September 2026
- L0-5Vojvodina29 August 2026
- L0-4away to FK Crvena Zvezda23 August 2026
Macva
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Mladost Lucani20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Železničar Pančevo11 September 2026
- D0-0Radnicki 19235 September 2026
- D1-1away to Novi Pazar29 August 2026
- W1-0Radnicki NIS22 August 2026
What these results say
- Cukaricki did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cukaricki conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cukaricki had three goals or more.
- Macva failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Macva had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cukaricki | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 22 |
| 11 | Macva | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cukaricki vs Macva
- 21 March 2021Macva 1–2 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 26 September 2020Cukaricki 4–0 MacvaSuper Liga
- 20 June 2020Cukaricki 3–1 MacvaSuper Liga
- 3 November 2019Macva 0–0 CukarickiSuper Liga
- 1 December 2018Macva 1–0 CukarickiSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Cukaricki and Macva
Cukaricki
GoalsAssists
- U. Miladinović63
Macva
GoalsAssists
- M. Vidakov40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cukaricki and Macva drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Cukaricki at 50% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Zlatan Šehović 1' for Cukaricki, Đorđe Jovanović 7' for Cukaricki, mitar ergelas 36' for Macva, stefan colovic 80' for Macva. Sent off: Marko Docić (Cukaricki) 73'. On expected goals it finished 1.04–0.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cukaricki a 18.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.5% after a win, 21.6% after a draw, 29.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 21.6%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.
For Macva the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 70.9% going in: 58.1% after a win, 70.5% after a draw, 76.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 70.5%.
Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Cukaricki v Macva has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 50% / 27% / 23%: the biggest move is Cukaricki's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Cukaricki win50%▲ +4
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Macva win23%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.