8 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

KuPS vs AC Oulu Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Vare Areena, Kuopio
Referee: Kontinen Joona
Full time0 – 1

Final score: KuPS 0-1 AC Oulu.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% KuPS, 23% draw, 16% AC Oulu — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

KuPS at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KuPS0%Draw6%AC Oulu94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozoassist: Joel lotvonen
45'
🔁Iiro Mendolinout: Julius Paananen
Bob Nii Armah
58'
🔁Saku Savolainenout: Samuel Pasanen
60'
🔁Tommi Jyryout: Ayman Aiki
60'
65'
Tuomas Kaukua
⚽Piotr Parzyszek (pen)
66'
71'
🔁Elias Kallioout: Adramane Cassama
71'
🔁Rasmus Karjalainenout: Roope Riski
🔁Valentin Gascout: Julius Eskesen
76'
🔁Clinton Antwiout: Niilo Kujasalo
76'
82'
🔁Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozoout: Juuso Mäkeläinen
82'
🔁Joel lotvonenout: Niklas Jokelainen

Match stats — KuPS vs AC Oulu

64%Possession36%
17Shots7
4On target3
9Corners3

Line-ups

KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. KreidlG
  • 6S. SavolainenD
  • 28B. MagassaD
  • 33T. HämäläinenD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 10V. GascM
  • 8P. PennanenM
  • 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 24B. ArmahM
  • 20P. ParzyszekF
Substitutes
  • 4K. AdamsD
  • 15A. AikiF
  • 34J. EskesenM
  • 13N. KujasaloM
  • 14S. PasanenM
  • 29A. PuukkoD
  • 12H. RiihimäkiG
  • 22S. TourayM
  • 17A. HeinonenM
Coach: M. Nuutinen
AC Oulu 4-4-2
  • 13Miguel SantosG
  • 16O. KemppainenD
  • 5M. PitkänenD
  • 66J. PirinenD
  • 22T. KaukuaD
  • 36J. LotvonenM
  • 25M. ArsaloM
  • 21I. MendolinM
  • 27E. KallioM
  • 7R. KarjalainenF
  • 10C. TrianaF
Substitutes
  • 3J. LietsaD
  • 30J. MakelainenM
  • 6J. PaananenM
  • 9R. RiskiF
  • 99N. SchulzG
  • 2S. SipolaD
  • 18Adramane CassamáD
  • 24Thomas Celestine SeleF
  • 14N. JokelainenM
Coach: M. Isokangas

Form going into KuPS vs AC Oulu

KuPS

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
  • D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
  • W1-0Shamrock Rovers27 August 2026

AC Oulu

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Inter Turku18 September 2026
  • L1-2Gnistan12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to VPS8 September 2026
  • D0-0SJK31 August 2026
  • W1-0away to FF Jaro22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
  • AC Oulu failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for AC Oulu had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3KuPS32141174633+1353
4AC Oulu32146124140+148

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: KuPS vs AC Oulu

  • 2 May 2026AC Oulu 2–0 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 22 April 2026KuPS 3–2 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 28 February 2026AC Oulu 5–0 KuPSLeague Cup
  • 5 December 2025KuPS 1–2 AC OuluFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 July 2025AC Oulu 2–2 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 12 April 2025KuPS 1–0 AC OuluFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: KuPS and AC Oulu

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno71
  • B. Armah40
  • P. Pennanen33

AC Oulu

GoalsAssists

  • R. Karjalainen56

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AC Oulu won 1–0 at KuPS. The model had leaned towards a win for KuPS at 61% and given a win for AC Oulu 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goal: Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo 28' for AC Oulu.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave KuPS a 51.3% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 57.2% after a win, 41.5% after a draw, 34.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.1%, 17.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on KuPS v AC Oulu has moved

First published on 24 Sep at 54% / 26% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 61% / 23% / 16%: the biggest move is KuPS's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. KuPS win61%▲ +7
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. AC Oulu win16%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.