KuPS
vs
AC Oulu
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: KuPS 2–0 AC Oulu
The model makes it 54% KuPS, 26% draw, 20% AC Oulu — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: KuPS 2.09, AC Oulu 0.82.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: KuPS vs AC Oulu
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KuPS at 54% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into KuPS vs AC Oulu
KuPS
- W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
- D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
- L2-4Mariehamn23 August 2026
AC Oulu
- L0-1Inter Turku18 September 2026
- L1-2Gnistan12 September 2026
- L0-1away to VPS8 September 2026
- D0-0SJK31 August 2026
- W1-0away to FF Jaro22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 48 |
| 6 | AC Oulu | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: KuPS vs AC Oulu
- 2 May 2026AC Oulu 2–0 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 22 April 2026KuPS 3–2 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
- 28 February 2026AC Oulu 5–0 KuPSLeague Cup
- 5 December 2025KuPS 1–2 AC OuluFriendlies Clubs
- 4 July 2025AC Oulu 2–2 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 12 April 2025KuPS 1–0 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: KuPS and AC Oulu
KuPS
- J. Moreno5 goals
- J. Luyeye-Lutumba3 goals1 assists
- B. Armah3 goals
AC Oulu
- J. Körkkö2 goals2 assists
- E. Kallio2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
KuPS carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.06 for AC Oulu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.09 goals for KuPS and 0.82 for AC Oulu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KuPS rate 0.65 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AC Oulu rate 0.39 and 1.93.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives KuPS a 36.9% chance of the title and AC Oulu 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KuPS the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for KuPS against 0.82 for AC Oulu. KuPS's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.93 for AC Oulu.