8 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

HJK Helsinki vs VPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Bolt Arena, Helsinki
Referee: Oliver Reitala
Full time6 – 0

Final score: HJK Helsinki 6-0 VPS.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% HJK Helsinki, 25% draw, 26% VPS — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HJK Helsinki at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HJK Helsinki99%Draw1%VPS0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Teemu Pukki
6'
⚽Mads Borchers
17'
⚽Mads Borchers
38'
38'
Mamadou Wurie Jalloh
41'
Paulo Lima
45'
🔁Miika Niemiout: Jayden Turfkruier
45'
🔁Paulo Limaout: Henri Salomaa
45'
🔁Emmanuel Okerekeout: Razak Simpson
⚽Mads Borchers
53'
🔁Lucas Lingmanout: Joona Veteli
57'
⚽Leonel Montano
61'
🔁Alexander Ringout: Martin Kirilov
66'
🔁Teemu Pukkiout: Mouhamed Gueye
66'
67'
🔁Antti-Ville Raisanenout: Dren terrnava
⚽Alfie Cicaleassist: Martin Kirilov
71'
🔁Nikolai Alhoout: Pyry Mentu
78'
🔁Alfie Cicaleout: Kaius Simojoki
78'
85'
🔁Wilson Samakeout: Casper Holmelund
90'
Simon Lindholm

Match stats — HJK Helsinki vs VPS

46%Possession54%
21Shots9
10On target1
4Corners6

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ÖstG
  • 17N. AlhoD
  • 31M. BogićevićD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 10L. LingmanM
  • 4A. RingM
  • 9M. BorchersM
  • 29S. HaaralaM
  • 7Alfie CicaleM
  • 20T. PukkiF
Substitutes
  • 32Mouhamed Guèye IIM
  • 87N. KroupkinF
  • 24E. LeveälahtiD
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 22L. MöllerM
  • 30J. SamoojaG
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 77J. VeteliM
  • 11M. KirilovM
Coach: J. Rantanen
VPS 3-4-1-2
  • 41M. JallohG
  • 23M. NiemiD
  • 6E. OkerekeD
  • 19M. HaukiojaD
  • 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
  • 34A. RäisänenM
  • 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
  • 24Y. DaoussiM
  • 14S. LindholmM
  • 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiF
  • 29W. SamakéF
Substitutes
  • 20X. OdhiamboF
  • 1A. PiispaG
  • 25Henri SalomaaF
  • 3Razak SimpsonM
  • 17Dren TërrnavaM
  • 7J. TurfkruierD
  • 30J. VahteraM
  • 11J. MuzingaF
  • 9C. HolmelundF
Coach: J. Nuorela

Form going into HJK Helsinki vs VPS

HJK Helsinki

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Gnistan18 September 2026
  • D0-0away to KuPS13 September 2026
  • W2-1Inter Turku9 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Ilves31 August 2026
  • L2-3Gnistan23 August 2026

VPS

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
  • W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
  • L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026

What these results say

  • HJK Helsinki scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HJK Helsinki conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for HJK Helsinki.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for VPS had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2HJK Helsinki3217876639+2759
6VPS32117143243-1140

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HJK Helsinki vs VPS

  • 18 July 2026HJK Helsinki 2–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 22 May 2026VPS 2–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 5 July 2025VPS 0–2 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 26 April 2025HJK Helsinki 3–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 20 September 2024VPS 1–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 1 September 2024VPS 1–3 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: HJK Helsinki and VPS

HJK Helsinki

GoalsAssists

  • M. Borchers173
  • T. Pukki46
  • S. Haarala42

VPS

GoalsAssists

  • L. Smyth50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HJK Helsinki beat VPS 6–0. The model had made a win for HJK Helsinki its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Teemu Pukki 6' for HJK Helsinki, Mads Borchers 17' for HJK Helsinki, Mads Borchers 38' for HJK Helsinki, Mads Borchers 53' for HJK Helsinki, Leonel Montano 61' for HJK Helsinki, Alfie Cicale 71' for HJK Helsinki.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave HJK Helsinki a 4.6% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 6.2% after a win, 2.2% after a draw, 1.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.2%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on HJK Helsinki v VPS has moved

First published on 24 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is HJK Helsinki's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. HJK Helsinki win49%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. VPS win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.