HJK Helsinki
vs
VPS
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: HJK Helsinki 2–1 VPS
The model makes it 45% HJK Helsinki, 27% draw, 28% VPS — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: HJK Helsinki 1.87, VPS 1.23.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: HJK Helsinki vs VPS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HJK Helsinki at 45% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into HJK Helsinki vs VPS
HJK Helsinki
- D1-1away to Gnistan18 September 2026
- D0-0away to KuPS13 September 2026
- W2-1Inter Turku9 September 2026
- W2-1away to Ilves31 August 2026
- L2-3Gnistan23 August 2026
VPS
- L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
- W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
- L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 42 |
| 5 | VPS | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: HJK Helsinki vs VPS
- 18 July 2026HJK Helsinki 2–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 22 May 2026VPS 2–1 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
- 5 July 2025VPS 0–2 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
- 26 April 2025HJK Helsinki 3–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 20 September 2024VPS 1–1 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
- 1 September 2024VPS 1–3 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: HJK Helsinki and VPS
HJK Helsinki
- M. Borchers4 goals
- T. Pukki3 goals2 assists
VPS
- L. Smyth5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HJK Helsinki carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.2 for VPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.23 for VPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HJK Helsinki rate 0.64 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VPS rate 0.47 and 1.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HJK Helsinki a 3.1% chance of the title and VPS 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HJK Helsinki the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for HJK Helsinki against 1.23 for VPS. HJK Helsinki's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.75 for VPS.