Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Keçiörengücü
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 Keçiörengücü
The model makes it 42% Fatih Karagümrük, 28% draw, 30% Keçiörengücü — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fatih Karagümrük 1.65, Keçiörengücü 1.20.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Fatih Karagümrük are 9th on 12 points from 8 games; Keçiörengücü are 6th on 13 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Fatih Karagümrük have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to Esenler Erokspor.
- Keçiörengücü are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sivasspor.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 April 2025, ended Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Keçiörengücü.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fatih Karagümrük at 42% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü
Fatih Karagümrük
- W2-0away to Esenler Erokspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Manisa F.K.13 September 2026
- L3-4away to Batman Petrolspor6 September 2026
- D1-1Kayserispor2 September 2026
- D1-1away to İstanbulspor29 August 2026
Keçiörengücü
- D1-1Sivasspor19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vanspor FK12 September 2026
- W3-0Sarıyer5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Boluspor1 September 2026
- D2-2Ümraniyespor28 August 2026
What these results say
- Fatih Karagümrük scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Keçiörengücü went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Keçiörengücü scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü
- 27 April 2025Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 22 December 2024Keçiörengücü 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
- 12 July 2020Keçiörengücü 3–0 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
- 22 December 2019Fatih Karagümrük 0–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 29 April 2017Keçiörengücü 2–3 Fatih Karagümrük2. Lig
- 17 December 2016Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Keçiörengücü2. Lig
Leading scorers: Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü
Fatih Karagümrük
- A. Pešić5 goals2 assists
Keçiörengücü
- M. Diouf5 goals2 assists
- F. Ezeh3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fatih Karagümrük carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.5 for Keçiörengücü. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.20 for Keçiörengücü. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fatih Karagümrük rate 0.67 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Keçiörengücü rate 0.75 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Keçiörengücü, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fatih Karagümrük a 6.5% chance of the title and Keçiörengücü 6.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fatih Karagümrük the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.20 for Keçiörengücü. Fatih Karagümrük's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.51 for Keçiörengücü.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fatih Karagümrük at home · Keçiörengücü away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Fatih Karagümrük 8, Keçiörengücü 8.
Fatih Karagümrük score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Keçiörengücü have let in 1 there.
Keçiörengücü score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Fatih Karagümrük have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fatih Karagümrük
- at Sarıyer24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 35%
- vs Pendikspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 47%
- at Bandırmaspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 30%
Keçiörengücü
- vs Bursaspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Esenler Erokspor30 Oct · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Manisa F.K.7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.