Iğdır FK
vs
Boluspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Iğdır FK 2–0 Boluspor
The model makes it 56% Iğdır FK, 25% draw, 19% Boluspor — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Iğdır FK 2.28, Boluspor 0.86.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Iğdır FK are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games; Boluspor are bottom on 1 point from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Iğdır FK are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Muğlaspor.
- Boluspor have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sarıyer.
- Last 4 meetings: Boluspor 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Boluspor 2–0 Iğdır FK.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Iğdır FK vs Boluspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Iğdır FK at 56% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Iğdır FK vs Boluspor
Iğdır FK
- D2-2away to Muğlaspor18 September 2026
- W1-0Mardin 196913 September 2026
- W2-1away to İstanbulspor7 September 2026
- W4-2Manisa F.K.3 September 2026
- W1-0away to Esenler Erokspor30 August 2026
Boluspor
- L1-2away to Sarıyer19 September 2026
- D1-1Pendikspor12 September 2026
- L0-6away to Bandırmaspor5 September 2026
- L0-2Keçiörengücü1 September 2026
- L0-2away to Muğlaspor28 August 2026
What these results say
- Iğdır FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Iğdır FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Iğdır FK won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Boluspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Boluspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 16 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Iğdır FK vs Boluspor
- 8 March 2026Boluspor 2–0 Iğdır FK1. Lig
- 19 October 2025Iğdır FK 1–1 Boluspor1. Lig
- 19 January 2025Iğdır FK 0–1 Boluspor1. Lig
- 11 August 2024Boluspor 0–1 Iğdır FK1. Lig
The two sides
Iğdır FK carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.06 for Boluspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.28 goals for Iğdır FK and 0.86 for Boluspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Iğdır FK rate 0.61 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boluspor rate 0.47 and 2.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Iğdır FK a 4.1% chance of the title and Boluspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Iğdır FK the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Iğdır FK against 0.86 for Boluspor. Iğdır FK's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.3 for Boluspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Iğdır FK at home · Boluspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Iğdır FK 8, Boluspor 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Iğdır FK
- at Bandırmaspor24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 26%
- vs Antalyaspor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Sarıyer6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 31%
Boluspor
- vs Vanspor FK23 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Sivasspor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
- vs Bodrum FK8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.