Regular Season - 21 · 14 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Djurgardens IF vs Gais Allsvenskan prediction & result

3Arena, Stockholm
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Djurgardens IF 2-0 Gais.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Djurgardens IF, 33% draw, 23% Gais — fair odds of 2.27, 3.03 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (20%).

Expected goals: Djurgardens IF 1.19, Gais 0.59.

Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 26%, under 2.5: 74%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Djurgardens IF vs Gais

32%
Both teams to score
26%
Over 2.5 goals
74%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 20%0-0 17%1-1 12%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Djurgardens IF at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Djurgardens IF99%Draw1%Gais0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 3 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Daniel Stensson
20'
⚽Kristian Stromland Lienassist: Bo Åsulv Hegland
35'
53'
Dennis Collander
59'
Oskar Ågren
⚽Bo Åsulv Heglandassist: Kristian Stromland Lien
63'
64'
🔁Robin Wendin Thomassonout: Matteo de Brienne
64'
🔁Oscar Petterssonout: Filip Beckman
64'
🔁Dennis Collanderout: William Milovanovic
🔁Daniel Stenssonout: Christos Almyras
68'
76'
🔁Nikola·Vasicout: Simon Jørgensen
🔁Bo Åsulv Heglandout: Alexander Johansson
81'
🔁Adam Stahlout: Max Larsson
82'
83'
🔁Rasmus Niklasson Petrovicout: Jonas Lindberg
Christos Almyras
86'
86'
Henry Sletsjoe
🔁Patric Aslundout: Peter Langhoff
90'
🔁Jeppe Okkelsout: Alexander Andersson
90'
90+8'
Joackim Aberg
90+10'
Henry Sletsjoe

Match stats — Djurgardens IF vs Gais

51%Possession49%
12Shots13
5On target3
2Corners2

Line-ups

Djurgardens IF 4-2-3-1
  • 35J. RinneG
  • 18A. StåhlD
  • 5M. TenhoD
  • 4J. Une-LarssonD
  • 2P. JohanssonD
  • 13D. StenssonM
  • 20M. SiltanenM
  • 8P. ÅslundM
  • 16Bo Åsulv HeglandM
  • 19J. OkkelsM
  • 9K. LienF
Substitutes
  • 7Christos AlmyrasM
  • 28A. AnderssonM
  • 29A. JohanssonM
  • 6P. LanghoffM
  • 24M. LarssonM
  • 21M. MarquesD
  • 14C. RosenquistF
  • 30Lukas Henrik JonssonG
  • 10A. AbdulmalikM
Coach: Jani Honkavaara
Gais 4-3-3
  • 1M. KrasniqiG
  • 6A. WängbergD
  • 12R. FrejD
  • 4O. ÅgrenD
  • 5R. ThomassonD
  • 10H. SletsjøeM
  • 7J. ÅbergM
  • 34D. CollanderM
  • 32O. PetterssonF
  • 21N. VasićF
  • 11R. NiklassonF
Substitutes
  • 33A. HermansenG
  • 25Jonas LindbergM
  • 8W. MilovanovicM
  • 28L. HedlundF
  • 2M. de BrienneD
  • 24F. BeckmanD
  • 16M. AnderssonM
  • 27M. BawaM
  • 14S. JørgensenF
Coach: F. Holmberg

Form going into Djurgardens IF vs Gais

Djurgardens IF

  • W1-0away to Kalmar FF7 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Mjallby AIF3 September 2026
  • W4-0Mjallby AIF31 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Malmo FF24 August 2026

Gais

  • D0-0BK Hacken5 September 2026
  • W4-0IF Brommapojkarna31 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Hammarby FF23 August 2026
  • L0-1Malmo FF16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Djurgardens IF2113264619+2741
10Gais217682520+527

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Djurgardens IF vs Gais

  • 6 April 2026Gais 0–1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • 19 October 2025Gais 3–2 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • 21 April 2025Djurgardens IF 0–0 GaisAllsvenskan
  • 22 September 2024Gais 3–0 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • 28 April 2024Djurgardens IF 1–0 GaisAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Djurgardens IF and Gais

Djurgardens IF

  • K. Lien15 goals4 assists
  • Bo Åsulv Hegland8 goals14 assists
  • P. Åslund6 goals1 assists

Gais

  • S. Salter6 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.19 goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.59 for Gais; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Kristian Stromland Lien 35' (Djurgardens IF), Bo Åsulv Hegland 63' (Djurgardens IF).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Djurgardens IF the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Djurgardens IF against 0.59 for Gais. Djurgardens IF's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.18 for Gais.