Aarhus
vs
Sonderjyske
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Aarhus 2–1 Sonderjyske
The model makes it 47% Aarhus, 26% draw, 27% Sonderjyske — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Aarhus 2.23, Sonderjyske 1.37.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aarhus are 11th on 5 points from 9 games; Sonderjyske are bottom on 5 points from 9 games — Superliga.
- Aarhus have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to AC Horsens.
- Sonderjyske have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Randers FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Aarhus 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Aarhus 2–1 Sonderjyske.
All Danish Superliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
Aarhus
- D2-2away to AC Horsens20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026
- D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
- L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Randers FC30 August 2026
Sonderjyske
- W4-2Randers FC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyngby13 September 2026
- L2-5AC Horsens6 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Copenhagen31 August 2026
- L0-3FC Nordsjaelland23 August 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aarhus | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
- 3 May 2026Aarhus 2–1 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 15 March 2026Sonderjyske 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 9 November 2025Aarhus 2–3 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 29 October 2025Aarhus 2–1 SonderjyskeDBU Pokalen
- 20 July 2025Sonderjyske 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 16 February 2025Sonderjyske 1–4 AarhusSuperliga
Leading scorers: Aarhus and Sonderjyske
Aarhus
- C. McCowatt3 goals2 assists
- J. Serra3 goals
Sonderjyske
- M. Haidara4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Aarhus carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.43 for Sonderjyske. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for Aarhus and 1.37 for Sonderjyske. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aarhus rate 0.78 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sonderjyske rate 0.70 and 1.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aarhus the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Aarhus against 1.37 for Sonderjyske. Aarhus's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.64 for Sonderjyske.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aarhus at home · Sonderjyske away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Aarhus 9, Sonderjyske 9.
Aarhus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sonderjyske have let in 3 there.
Sonderjyske score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Aarhus have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Aarhus
- at Gent15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 19%
- at FC Copenhagen18 Oct · Superligawin 24%
- vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 59%
- vs Viborg25 Oct · Superligawin 37%
- at Brondby1 Nov · Superligawin 35%
Sonderjyske
- vs Silkeborg18 Oct · Superligawin 37%
- at AC Horsens25 Oct · Superligawin 28%
- vs FC Copenhagen2 Nov · Superligawin 23%
- at FC Midtjylland8 Nov · Superligawin 18%
- vs Odense22 Nov · Superligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.