Al-Hilal
vs
Al-Fateh
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Hilal 3–0 Al-Fateh
The model makes it 77% Al-Hilal, 15% draw, 8% Al-Fateh — fair odds of 1.30, 6.67 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Al-Hilal 3.15, Al-Fateh 0.78.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Hilal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Hilal are 2nd on 21 points from 8 games; Al-Fateh are 16th on 6 points from 9 games — Pro League.
- Al-Hilal have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Al-Ittihad.
- Al-Fateh have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Al-Hazm.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Hilal 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Al-Fateh 0–1 Al-Hilal.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Hilal vs Al-Fateh
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hilal at 77% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Al-Hilal vs Al-Fateh
Al-Hilal
- W3-2Al-Ittihad10 October 2026
- W6-0away to Al Taawon12 September 2026
- L0-2NEOM7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al Shabab4 September 2026
- W3-0Al-Ahli Jeddah1 September 2026
Al-Fateh
- W3-2away to Al-Hazm15 October 2026
- L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026
- L2-4away to NEOM13 September 2026
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Hilal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hilal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fateh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fateh conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Fateh had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al-Hilal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 21 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Hilal
Chance to win the league
Al-Fateh
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al-Hilal vs Al-Fateh
- 14 March 2026Al-Fateh 0–1 Al-HilalPro League
- 29 November 2025Al-Hilal 4–1 Al-FatehKing's Cup
- 22 November 2025Al-Hilal 2–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 16 May 2025Al-Fateh 3–4 Al-HilalPro League
- 16 January 2025Al-Hilal 9–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 26 April 2024Al-Hilal 3–1 Al-FatehPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Hilal and Al-Fateh
Al-Hilal
GoalsAssists
- O. Watkins44
- S. Milinković-Savić41
- Gabriel Martinelli40
Al-Fateh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Al-Hilal carry a model rating of 7.03 against 6.39 for Al-Fateh. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.15 goals for Al-Hilal and 0.78 for Al-Fateh. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Hilal rate 1.28 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Fateh rate 0.59 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Hilal a 55.6% chance of the title and Al-Fateh 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hilal the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.15 expected goals for Al-Hilal against 0.78 for Al-Fateh. Al-Hilal's attack/defence rating is 1.28/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.5 for Al-Fateh.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Hilal at home · Al-Fateh away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Hilal 8, Al-Fateh 9.
Al-Hilal score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Al-Fateh have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Hilal
- vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 64%
Al-Fateh
- vs Al Riyadh5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 41%
- at Al-Fayha20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 11%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.