SHANGHAI SIPG
vs
Daejeon Citizen
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: SHANGHAI SIPG 2–1 Daejeon Citizen
The model makes it 36% SHANGHAI SIPG, 28% draw, 36% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.62, Daejeon Citizen 1.62.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: SHANGHAI SIPG and Daejeon Citizen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SHANGHAI SIPG are 3rd on 3 points from 1 game; Daejeon Citizen are 7th on 3 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- SHANGHAI SIPG are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Beijing Guoan.
- Daejeon Citizen are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Incheon United.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Daejeon Citizen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SHANGHAI SIPG at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SHANGHAI SIPG vs Daejeon Citizen
SHANGHAI SIPG
- W6-4away to Ratchaburi15 September 2026
Daejeon Citizen
- W1-0Kyoto Sanga15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Daejeon Citizen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: SHANGHAI SIPG and Daejeon Citizen
SHANGHAI SIPG
- P. Ampem3 goals
- Wu Lei1 goal1 assist
- Jaume Grau1 goal1 assist
Daejeon Citizen
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SHANGHAI SIPG carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.59 for Daejeon Citizen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.62 for Daejeon Citizen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SHANGHAI SIPG rate 0.58 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Daejeon Citizen rate 0.88 and 1.52.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.62 for Daejeon Citizen. SHANGHAI SIPG's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.52 for Daejeon Citizen.
Season stats
SHANGHAI SIPG at home · Daejeon Citizen away
League matches only, this season — SHANGHAI SIPG in the Super League, Daejeon Citizen in the K League 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: SHANGHAI SIPG 26 in the Super League, Daejeon Citizen 30 in the K League 1.
SHANGHAI SIPG score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Daejeon Citizen have let in 7 there.
Daejeon Citizen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); SHANGHAI SIPG have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SHANGHAI SIPG
- vs Chengdu Better City18 Oct · Super Leaguewin 39%
- at Tianjin Teda24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 32%
- vs Công An Nhân Dân27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 47%
- at Newcastle Jets3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 26%
Daejeon Citizen
- vs Gwangju FC18 Oct · K League 1win 57%
- at Gimcheon Sangmu FC24 Oct · K League 1win 39%
- vs Vissel Kobe27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 44%
- at Kashiwa Reysol3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.