Kyoto Sanga
vs
Ratchaburi
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Kyoto Sanga 2–1 Ratchaburi
The model makes it 55% Kyoto Sanga, 23% draw, 22% Ratchaburi — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Kyoto Sanga 2.64, Ratchaburi 1.23.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kyoto Sanga are 12th on 0 points from 1 game; Ratchaburi are 13th on 0 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Kyoto Sanga have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Kashiwa Reysol.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kyoto Sanga vs Ratchaburi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kyoto Sanga at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kyoto Sanga vs Ratchaburi
Kyoto Sanga
- L0-1away to Daejeon Citizen15 September 2026
Ratchaburi
- L4-6SHANGHAI SIPG15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Ratchaburi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Kyoto Sanga carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.28 for Ratchaburi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.64 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.23 for Ratchaburi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kyoto Sanga rate 0.68 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ratchaburi rate 0.66 and 2.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kyoto Sanga the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Kyoto Sanga against 1.23 for Ratchaburi. Kyoto Sanga's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/2.12 for Ratchaburi.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kyoto Sanga
- vs Newcastle Jets27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 46%
- at Công An Nhân Dân3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 33%
- vs Pohang Steelers24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 46%
- at Buriram United1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
- vs Jeonbuk Motors9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 38%
Ratchaburi
- vs Kashiwa Reysol27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
- at Vissel Kobe3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 16%
- vs Johor Darul Takzim FC24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 36%
- at Beijing Guoan1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 22%
- vs Gamba Osaka9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.