Pohang Steelers
vs
Johor Darul Takzim FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Pohang Steelers 2–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC
The model makes it 40% Pohang Steelers, 27% draw, 33% Johor Darul Takzim FC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pohang Steelers 1.78, Johor Darul Takzim FC 1.50.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pohang Steelers are 14th on 0 points from 1 game; Johor Darul Takzim FC are 8th on 1 point from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Pohang Steelers are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Seoul.
- Last 3 meetings: Pohang Steelers 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 February 2025, ended Johor Darul Takzim FC 5–2 Pohang Steelers.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Pohang Steelers vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pohang Steelers at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pohang Steelers vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
Pohang Steelers
- L1-3away to Beijing Guoan15 September 2026
Johor Darul Takzim FC
- D1-1Buriram United15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pohang Steelers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 8 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pohang Steelers vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
- 18 February 2025Johor Darul Takzim FC 5–2 Pohang SteelersAFC Champions League Elite
- 1 July 2021Johor Darul Takzim FC 0–2 Pohang SteelersAFC Champions League
- 28 June 2021Pohang Steelers 4–1 Johor Darul Takzim FCAFC Champions League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pohang Steelers carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.53 for Johor Darul Takzim FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.50 for Johor Darul Takzim FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pohang Steelers rate 0.55 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Johor Darul Takzim FC rate 0.88 and 1.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pohang Steelers the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Pohang Steelers against 1.50 for Johor Darul Takzim FC. Pohang Steelers's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.76 for Johor Darul Takzim FC.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Pohang Steelers
- vs FC Anyang18 Oct · K League 1win 38%
- at Ulsan Hyundai FC24 Oct · K League 1win 29%
- at Kashima28 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 18%
- vs Gamba Osaka4 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 36%
Johor Darul Takzim FC
- vs Port FC27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 65%
- at Jeonbuk Motors3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 25%
- at Ratchaburi24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 39%
- vs Daejeon Citizen1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 44%
- at Newcastle Jets9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.