Bandırmaspor
vs
Sivasspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Bandırmaspor 1–0 Sivasspor
The model makes it 45% Bandırmaspor, 32% draw, 23% Sivasspor — fair odds of 2.22, 3.13 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Bandırmaspor 1.34, Sivasspor 0.67.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bandırmaspor are 11th on 10 points from 8 games; Sivasspor are 15th on 8 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Bandırmaspor have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Ümraniyespor.
- Sivasspor are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Keçiörengücü.
- Last 5 meetings: Sivasspor 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Bandırmaspor 1–0 Sivasspor.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bandırmaspor at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor
Bandırmaspor
- L0-1Ümraniyespor18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sarıyer11 September 2026
- W6-0Boluspor5 September 2026
- L0-1Antalyaspor1 September 2026
- D1-1away to Pendikspor28 August 2026
Sivasspor
- D1-1away to Keçiörengücü19 September 2026
- D1-1Muğlaspor13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Antalyaspor6 September 2026
- D2-2Mardin 19692 September 2026
- L1-2away to Batman Petrolspor29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bandırmaspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bandırmaspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bandırmaspor had two goals or fewer.
- Sivasspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Sivasspor.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bandırmaspor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 10 |
| 15 | Sivasspor | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor
- 2 May 2026Bandırmaspor 1–0 Sivasspor1. Lig
- 27 December 2025Sivasspor 2–0 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 9 February 2022Bandırmaspor 2–4 SivassporTürkiye Kupası
- 7 May 2017Sivasspor 3–0 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 17 December 2016Bandırmaspor 0–1 Sivasspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Bandırmaspor and Sivasspor
Bandırmaspor
- G. Bruno4 goals
- A. Badji3 goals3 assists
Sivasspor
- R. Manaj6 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bandırmaspor carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.3 for Sivasspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Bandırmaspor and 0.67 for Sivasspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bandırmaspor rate 0.53 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sivasspor rate 0.51 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bandırmaspor a 1.5% chance of the title and Sivasspor 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bandırmaspor the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Bandırmaspor against 0.67 for Sivasspor. Bandırmaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.56 for Sivasspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bandırmaspor at home · Sivasspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Bandırmaspor 8, Sivasspor 8.
Sivasspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Bandırmaspor have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bandırmaspor
- at Bodrum FK17 Oct · 1. Ligwin 29%
- vs Iğdır FK24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 42%
- at Bursaspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 25%
- vs Fatih Karagümrük8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 38%
Sivasspor
- vs Sarıyer17 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Ümraniyespor24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 30%
- vs Boluspor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 51%
- at Vanspor FK7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.