Buriram United
vs
Beijing Guoan
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Buriram United 2–1 Beijing Guoan
The model makes it 40% Buriram United, 28% draw, 32% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Buriram United 1.62, Beijing Guoan 1.32.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Buriram United are 9th on 1 point from 1 game; Beijing Guoan are 4th on 3 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to SHANGHAI SIPG.
- Last 2 meetings: Beijing Guoan 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 April 2019, ended Beijing Guoan 2–0 Buriram United.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Buriram United at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan
Buriram United
- D1-1away to Johor Darul Takzim FC15 September 2026
Beijing Guoan
- W3-1Pohang Steelers15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Buriram United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan
- 24 April 2019Beijing Guoan 2–0 Buriram UnitedAFC Champions League
- 9 April 2019Buriram United 1–3 Beijing GuoanAFC Champions League
Leading scorers: Buriram United and Beijing Guoan
Buriram United
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Beijing Guoan
- Zhang Xizhe1 goal1 assist
- C. Akolo1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Buriram United carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.45 for Beijing Guoan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Buriram United and 1.32 for Beijing Guoan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Buriram United rate 0.58 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beijing Guoan rate 0.68 and 1.52.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Buriram United the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Buriram United against 1.32 for Beijing Guoan. Buriram United's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.52 for Beijing Guoan.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Buriram United
- at Gamba Osaka28 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
- vs Kashima4 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 29%
- at SHANGHAI SIPG24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 27%
- vs Kyoto Sanga1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 40%
- at Kashiwa Reysol10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 20%
Beijing Guoan
- vs Qingdao Youth Island18 Oct · Super Leaguewin 47%
- at Henan Jianye24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 38%
- vs Jeonbuk Motors27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 38%
- at Port FC3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.