AC Milan
vs
Venezia
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 29% AC Milan, 23% draw, 48% Venezia — fair odds of 3.45, 4.35 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: AC Milan 1.49, Venezia 1.98.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Venezia
- 27 April 2025Venezia 0–2 AC MilanSerie A
- 14 September 2024AC Milan 4–0 VeneziaSerie A
- 9 January 2022Venezia 0–3 AC MilanSerie A
- 22 September 2021AC Milan 2–0 VeneziaSerie A
The two sides
AC Milan carry a model rating of 6.87 against 7.16 for Venezia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for AC Milan and 1.98 for Venezia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Milan rate 1.08 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Venezia rate 1.36 and 0.73.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Venezia the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for AC Milan against 1.98 for Venezia. AC Milan's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.36/0.73 for Venezia.