Shanghai Shenhua
vs
Beijing Guoan
Super League prediction
The model makes it 22% Shanghai Shenhua, 23% draw, 55% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 4.55, 4.35 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Shanghai Shenhua 1.12, Beijing Guoan 1.88.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Shanghai Shenhua
- W1-0away to Qingdao Jonoon8 August 2026
- L1-3away to Shenyang Urban2 August 2026
- L0-2away to SHANGHAI SIPG25 July 2026
- L0-2Tianjin Teda18 July 2026
- W3-2Hangzhou Greentown5 July 2026
Beijing Guoan
- W4-0Sichuan Jiuniu7 August 2026
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chengdu Better City26 July 2026
- D1-1Shenyang Urban17 July 2026
- W2-0Shandong Luneng4 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shanghai Shenhua | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 34 | +4 | 22 |
| 6 | Beijing Guoan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Shanghai Shenhua
- Rafael Ratão13 goals
Beijing Guoan
- Zhang Yuning10 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shanghai Shenhua carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.69 for Beijing Guoan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Shanghai Shenhua W-L-L-L-W; Beijing Guoan W-D-D-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.88 for Beijing Guoan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shanghai Shenhua rate 0.51 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beijing Guoan rate 0.84 and 1.16.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shanghai Shenhua a 0% chance of the title and Beijing Guoan 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 314 correct results out of 656 settled predictions (48%), with 62 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua against 1.88 for Beijing Guoan. Shanghai Shenhua's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.16 for Beijing Guoan.