SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing Super League prediction & result
Final score: SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% SHANGHAI SIPG, 19% draw, 26% Dalian Zhixing — fair odds of 1.82, 5.26 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
SHANGHAI SIPG at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Yan JunlingG
- 22A. Yang
- 3Browning TyiasD
- 13Wei ZhenD
- 19Wang ZhenaoD
- 8Jean ClaudeM
- 10Mateus VitalM
- 7Wu LeiM
- 21O. MelendoM
- 17P. O. AmpemM
- 45LeonardoF
- 12Chen WeiG
- 4Wang ShenchaoD
- 28Yue XinD
- 5Zhang LinpengD
- 23Fu HuanD
- 32Li ShuaiD
- 40Yusup UmidjanD
- 33Liu ZhurunF
- 47Kuai JiwenF
- 20Liu WeiguoG
- 38Lu ZhuoyiD
- 24Bi JinhaoD
- 6Song YueD
- 12Feng BoxuanD
- 40Liao JintaoM
- 9P. DelgadoM
- 10N. StanciuM
- 8Zhang HuachenM
- 27Yang MingruiM
- 30F. AcheampongF
- 1Ge PengG
- 26Huang ZihaoG
- 33Cao HaiqingD
- 15Wen JiabaoD
- 28Sun KangboD
- 5Peng ShunjieD
- 21Lu PengM
- 7Luo JingM
- 23Huang ShanM
Form going into SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing
SHANGHAI SIPG
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Wuhan Three Towns14 August 2026
- W3-2away to Chongqing Tongliang Long9 August 2026
Dalian Zhixing
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Yunnan Yukun15 August 2026
- W1-0Shenyang Urban8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 56 | 37 | +19 | 45 |
| 1 | Dalian Zhixing | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 44 | +5 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing
- 20 March 2026Dalian Zhixing 1–0 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
- 22 November 2025Dalian Zhixing 0–1 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
- 26 June 2025SHANGHAI SIPG 3–0 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
Leading scorers: SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing
SHANGHAI SIPG
GoalsAssists
- Leonardo145
Dalian Zhixing
GoalsAssists
- F. Acheampong124
- N. Stanciu105
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for SHANGHAI SIPG at 55% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: N. Stanciu (penalty) 22' for Dalian Zhixing, X. Li 90' for SHANGHAI SIPG. Sent off: Pedro Delgado (Dalian Zhixing) -5'. On expected goals it finished 2.73–1.38.