6 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan Super Liga prediction & result

Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FK Crvena Zvezda 2-1 FK Partizan.

Before kick-off the model made it 77% FK Crvena Zvezda, 13% draw, 10% FK Partizan — fair odds of 1.30, 7.69 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 4-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 77% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Crvena Zvezda97%Draw3%FK Partizan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Jeferson Marinho dos Santos
⚽Bamba Diengassist: Mirko Ivanić
17'
•Matej Gashtarov
26'
⚽Mirko Ivanić (pen)
28'
44'
Demba Seck
Derrick Luckassen
45+2'
45+3'
Stefan Milic
45'
🔁Vukasin djurdjevicout: Samson Nwulu
45'
🔁Iddrisu Babaout: Milan aleksic
Rade Krunić
52'
🔁Rade Krunićout: Mahmudu Bajo
57'
Timi Elsnik
58'
61'
🔁Stefan Milicout: Sidney Lima
61'
🔁Nikola Cumicout: Zubairu Ibrahim
🔁Bamba Diengout: Marko Arnautović
68'
🔁Timi Elsnikout: Osman Bukari
68'
🔁Mirko Ivanićout: Kristiyan Balov
69'
71'
🔁Mateja Milovanovicout: stefan petrovic
Muhammed Cham Saracevic
83'
🔁Muhammed Cham Saracevicout: Mohammad Abu Fani
83'
85'
Milan aleksic
stefan gudelj
90+4'
Mahmudu Bajo
90+5'
90+6'
aleks zekovic

Match stats — FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan

44%Possession56%
11Shots12
3On target4
2Corners5

Line-ups

FK Crvena Zvezda 3-2-4-1
  • 1MatheusG
  • 32D. LuckassenD
  • 45S. GudeljD
  • 30F. Tebo UchennaD
  • 60M. Gashtarov
  • 33R. KrunicM
  • 70M. ChamF
  • 21T. ElsnikM
  • 22V. KostovM
  • 4M. IvanicF
  • 9B. DiengF
Substitutes
  • 50S. RadanovicG
  • 3Y. NakayamaD
  • 13M. VeljkovicD
  • 10A. KataiM
  • 15M. Abu FaniM
  • 20T. HandelM
  • 6M. BajoM
  • 7M. ArnautovicF
  • 75L. LoizouF
Coach: Albert Riera
FK Partizan 4-2-3-1
  • 31M. KrunicG
  • 24V. DjurdjevicD
  • 44S. MilicD
  • 40N. SimicD
  • 5M. MilovanovicD
  • 14I. BabaM
  • 11M. VukoticM
  • 19D. SeckM
  • 10I. MiladinovicM
  • 27N. CumicM
  • 89JehF
Substitutes
  • 1M. MilosevicG
  • 21S. LimaD
  • 33S. PetrovicD
  • 23S. MitrovicD
  • 8A. ZekovicM
  • 99B. KosticF
  • 20S. NwuluD
  • 7C. TraoreM
  • 39I. ZubairuM
Coach: Sasa Ilic

Form going into FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan

FK Crvena Zvezda

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Zemun30 August 2026
  • L1-5away to Plzen27 August 2026
  • W4-0Cukaricki23 August 2026
  • W3-0Plzen20 August 2026
  • L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva11 August 2026

FK Partizan

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1OFK Beograd31 August 2026
  • W2-1Getafe27 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Mladost Lucani23 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Getafe20 August 2026
  • L0-1Radnicki 192316 August 2026

What these results say

  • FK Crvena Zvezda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FK Partizan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FK Partizan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FK Partizan had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FK Crvena Zvezda131210334+2937
10FK Partizan134272124-314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan

  • 26 April 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 3–0 FK PartizanSuper Liga
  • 22 February 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 3–0 FK PartizanSuper Liga
  • 20 September 2025FK Partizan 1–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 12 April 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga
  • 22 February 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 3–3 FK PartizanSuper Liga

Leading scorers: FK Crvena Zvezda and FK Partizan

FK Crvena Zvezda

GoalsAssists

  • V. Kostov42
  • A. Katai34
  • M. Abu Fani32

FK Partizan

GoalsAssists

  • E. Kojzek32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FK Crvena Zvezda beat FK Partizan 2–1. The model had made a win for FK Crvena Zvezda its most likely outcome, at 77%, so the call held; the score it named was 4–1. The goals: Jeferson Marinho dos Santos 1' for FK Partizan, Bamba Dieng 17' for FK Crvena Zvezda, Mirko Ivanić (penalty) 28' for FK Crvena Zvezda.

How the call on FK Crvena Zvezda v FK Partizan has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 74% / 15% / 11% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 77% / 13% / 10%: the biggest move is FK Crvena Zvezda's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. FK Crvena Zvezda win77%▲ +3
  2. Draw13%▼ −2
  3. FK Partizan win10%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.