FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC Lugano.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Basel 1893, 30% draw, 32% FC Lugano — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Swiss Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Basel 1893 at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano
Line-ups
- 1J. OmlinG
- 6K. TsunemotoD
- 24F. DaniliucD
- 55A. VictoryD
- 3N. VouillozD
- 44J. HarderM
- 4B. OmeragićM
- 8L. Małachowski ThorellM
- 18A. SowF
- 9Ž. CelarF
- 11K. OlaigbeF
- 14A. BačaninM
- 5MetinhoM
- 7P. OteleF
- 27K. RüeggD
- 13M. SalviG
- 10X. ShaqiriM
- 17A. MaloudaF
- 37G. KolotoF
- 41J. DoucoureM
- 16D. von BallmoosG
- 6A. PapadopoulosD
- 17L. MaiD
- 3H. DelcroixD
- 2B. KarimovM
- 25U. BislimiM
- 8A. GrgićM
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 21Y. CimignaniM
- 11R. SteffenF
- 30D. MoncadaF
- 9A. AjetiF
- 18J. BichselD
- 22B. CastroF
- 28F. GebhardtG
- 4D. KelvinD
- 14A. KendouciM
- 24E. PihlströmF
- 23G. AjdinM
- 44João Victor Schlickmann CarboneD
Form going into FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano
FC Basel 1893
- L1-2FC Sion3 September 2026
FC Lugano
- W1-0Servette FC3 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Sion30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Maccabi Tel Aviv27 August 2026
- W2-1Maccabi Tel Aviv20 August 2026
- D2-2away to NSI Runavik13 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 13 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano
- 6 September 2026FC Basel 1893 1–3 FC LuganoSuper League
- 17 May 2026FC Lugano 4–0 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 15 February 2026FC Basel 1893 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 9 November 2025FC Basel 1893 0–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 10 August 2025FC Lugano 3–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 10 May 2025FC Lugano 2–5 FC Basel 1893Super League
Leading scorers: FC Basel 1893 and FC Lugano
FC Basel 1893
GoalsAssists
- Ž. Celar61
- A. Sow34
- X. Shaqiri31
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- D. Moncada41
- Daniel Dos Santos40
- E. Pihlström31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.