Servette FC
vs
FC Luzern
Super League prediction
The model makes it 66% Servette FC, 18% draw, 16% FC Luzern — fair odds of 1.52, 5.56 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Servette FC 2.58, FC Luzern 1.21.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Servette FC
- W2-1Grasshoppers8 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Zurich1 August 2026
- L0-1FC Basel 189325 July 2026
FC Luzern
- D2-2away to FC St. Gallen9 August 2026
- L0-3away to FC Sion2 August 2026
- L1-3FC Thun25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Servette FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | FC Luzern | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Servette FC vs FC Luzern
- 9 May 2026FC Luzern 3–3 Servette FCSuper League
- 6 April 2026Servette FC 3–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 22 November 2025FC Luzern 2–2 Servette FCSuper League
- 31 August 2025Servette FC 2–2 FC LuzernSuper League
- 18 May 2025FC Luzern 3–4 Servette FCSuper League
- 21 April 2025Servette FC 2–1 FC LuzernSuper League
The two sides
Servette FC carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.37 for FC Luzern. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Servette FC L-L-W; FC Luzern L-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.58 goals for Servette FC and 1.21 for FC Luzern. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Servette FC rate 0.78 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Luzern rate 0.66 and 1.75.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Servette FC the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Servette FC against 1.21 for FC Luzern. Servette FC's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.75 for FC Luzern.