Servette FC vs FC Luzern Super League prediction & result
Final score: Servette FC 1-1 FC Luzern.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Servette FC, 23% draw, 22% FC Luzern — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Servette FC at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Servette FC vs FC Luzern
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 78L. BessonG
- 23Q. MaceirasD
- 4S. RouillerD
- 15M. BurchD
- 14L. NjohD
- 6Pedro NaressiM
- 28D. DoulineM
- 9M. StevanovicM
- 8T. CognatM
- 77T. OuattaraM
- 90S. MrazF
- 44L. RiederG
- 37S. DjohoD
- 17H. MendesD
- 18B. MazikouD
- 34T. AllixD
- 11L. FombaM
- 20J. SimoM
- 38B. SidaF
- 41T. NunezF
- 30K. LeticaG
- 20P. DornD
- 13B. H. Freimann
- 46B. FreimannD
- 14A. CiganiksD
- 24T. OwusuM
- 80M. Zimmermann
- 6L. BertoneM
- 11M. Di GiustoM
- 16O. KabwitF
- 19D. MikolajewskiF
- 1S. SimoniG
- 5S. KnezevicD
- 22R. Dantas FernandesD
- 21L. LuthiD
- 29L. WinklerM
- 10L. SilvaM
- 15N. ToggenburgerF
- 71S. MeyerF
- 17S. Wyss
Form going into Servette FC vs FC Luzern
Servette FC
- W2-1Grasshoppers8 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Zurich1 August 2026
- L0-1FC Basel 189325 July 2026
FC Luzern
- W1-0Lausanne22 August 2026
- D2-2away to FC St. Gallen9 August 2026
- L0-3away to FC Sion2 August 2026
- L1-3FC Thun25 July 2026
What these results say
- FC Luzern failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Luzern scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Luzern conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Servette FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Luzern | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Servette FC vs FC Luzern
- 29 August 2026Servette FC 1–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 9 May 2026FC Luzern 3–3 Servette FCSuper League
- 6 April 2026Servette FC 3–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 22 November 2025FC Luzern 2–2 Servette FCSuper League
- 31 August 2025Servette FC 2–2 FC LuzernSuper League
- 18 May 2025FC Luzern 3–4 Servette FCSuper League
Leading scorers: Servette FC and FC Luzern
Servette FC
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
FC Luzern
- D. Mikołajewski4 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.