Lausanne
vs
FC Zurich
Super League prediction
The model makes it 55% Lausanne, 24% draw, 21% FC Zurich — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lausanne 1.77, FC Zurich 1.00.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lausanne
- D2-2BSC Young Boys8 August 2026
- W1-0away to FC Basel 18931 August 2026
- D1-1Grasshoppers25 July 2026
FC Zurich
- L0-5away to FC Lugano9 August 2026
- W2-1Servette FC1 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC St. Gallen26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lausanne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | FC Zurich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Lausanne vs FC Zurich
- 25 April 2026Lausanne 3–0 FC ZurichSuper League
- 4 March 2026FC Zurich 1–2 LausanneSuper League
- 1 November 2025FC Zurich 1–2 LausanneSuper League
- 10 August 2025Lausanne 1–2 FC ZurichSuper League
- 2 April 2025FC Zurich 2–2 LausanneSuper League
- 8 December 2024Lausanne 3–0 FC ZurichSuper League
Leading scorers
Lausanne
- F. Mollet2 goals
FC Zurich
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lausanne carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.34 for FC Zurich. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Lausanne D-W-D; FC Zurich L-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Lausanne and 1.00 for FC Zurich. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lausanne rate 0.60 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Zurich rate 0.56 and 1.56.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lausanne the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lausanne against 1 for FC Zurich. Lausanne's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.56 for FC Zurich.