Železničar Pančevo
vs
Radnik Surdulica
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 47% Železničar Pančevo, 29% draw, 24% Radnik Surdulica — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Železničar Pančevo 1.39, Radnik Surdulica 0.90.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Železničar Pančevo
- D2-2away to OFK Beograd9 August 2026
- D0-0Mladost Lucani3 August 2026
- W2-1Radnicki NIS17 July 2026
Radnik Surdulica
- L1-2away to Vojvodina9 August 2026
- D0-0away to OFK Beograd25 July 2026
- D1-1Mladost Lucani19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Železničar Pančevo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 13 | Radnik Surdulica | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Železničar Pančevo vs Radnik Surdulica
- 9 May 2026Železničar Pančevo 1–1 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 31 January 2026Železničar Pančevo 1–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 24 August 2025Radnik Surdulica 1–2 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 13 May 2024Železničar Pančevo 4–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 2 April 2024Železničar Pančevo 3–1 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 28 October 2023Radnik Surdulica 0–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Železničar Pančevo carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.12 for Radnik Surdulica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Železničar Pančevo W-D-D; Radnik Surdulica D-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Železničar Pančevo and 0.90 for Radnik Surdulica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Železničar Pančevo rate 0.39 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnik Surdulica rate 0.43 and 1.88.
That points to 40% for over two and a half goals and 45% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Železničar Pančevo the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Železničar Pančevo against 0.9 for Radnik Surdulica. Železničar Pančevo's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.88 for Radnik Surdulica.