BSC Young Boys
vs
FC Basel 1893
Super League prediction
The model makes it 62% BSC Young Boys, 19% draw, 19% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: BSC Young Boys 2.41, FC Basel 1893 1.27.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
BSC Young Boys
- D2-2away to Lausanne8 August 2026
- W6-0away to FC Thun1 August 2026
- W4-2FC Sion26 July 2026
FC Basel 1893
- W4-2FC Thun9 August 2026
- L0-1Lausanne1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Servette FC25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893
- 10 May 2026BSC Young Boys 3–0 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 4 April 2026FC Basel 1893 3–3 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 2 November 2025BSC Young Boys 0–0 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 6 August 2025FC Basel 1893 4–1 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 18 May 2025BSC Young Boys 6–2 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 16 March 2025FC Basel 1893 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
Leading scorers
BSC Young Boys
- S. Essende4 goals2 assists
- L. Blum2 goals1 assists
FC Basel 1893
- A. Sow2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
BSC Young Boys carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.59 for FC Basel 1893. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): BSC Young Boys W-W-D; FC Basel 1893 W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.41 goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.27 for FC Basel 1893. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
BSC Young Boys rate 1.16 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Basel 1893 rate 0.64 and 1.10.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BSC Young Boys the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.41 expected goals for BSC Young Boys against 1.27 for FC Basel 1893. BSC Young Boys's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.1 for FC Basel 1893.