Seattle Sounders
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 28% Seattle Sounders, 25% draw, 47% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Seattle Sounders 1.26, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.68.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Seattle Sounders
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Philadelphia Union25 July 2026
- L1-3away to Austin23 July 2026
- L1-5Portland Timbers17 July 2026
- L0-1away to Los Angeles FC25 May 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
- D1-1Los Angeles FC1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Minnesota United FC26 July 2026
- L3-4away to FC Cincinnati22 July 2026
- W4-2away to San Diego24 May 2026
- L0-1away to Houston Dynamo17 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 24 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | +21 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Seattle Sounders carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.64 for Vancouver Whitecaps. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Seattle Sounders L-L-L-L-L; Vancouver Whitecaps L-W-L-D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Seattle Sounders and 1.68 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Seattle Sounders rate 0.58 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.75 and 1.15.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Seattle Sounders a 0% chance of the title and Vancouver Whitecaps 75.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Seattle Sounders against 1.68 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Seattle Sounders's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.15 for Vancouver Whitecaps.