Portland Timbers
vs
Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Portland Timbers 2–1 Colorado Rapids
The model makes it 42% Portland Timbers, 27% draw, 31% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.81, Colorado Rapids 1.39.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Portland Timbers are 10th on 32 points from 27 games; Colorado Rapids are 8th on 36 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Portland Timbers are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to San Jose Earthquakes.
- Colorado Rapids have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Los Angeles Galaxy.
- Last 6 meetings: Portland Timbers 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Colorado Rapids 2–0 Portland Timbers.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portland Timbers at 42% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids
Portland Timbers
- L1-3away to San Jose Earthquakes27 September 2026
- L0-1Atlanta United FC20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Dallas13 September 2026
- D2-2St. Louis City10 September 2026
- W5-4Minnesota United FC6 September 2026
Colorado Rapids
- L2-3away to Los Angeles Galaxy27 September 2026
- D3-3Seattle Sounders20 September 2026
- W1-0CF Montreal13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Austin10 September 2026
- L0-3away to Columbus Crew5 September 2026
What these results say
- Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids
- 28 February 2026Colorado Rapids 2–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 29 May 2025Portland Timbers 2–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2025Colorado Rapids 0–3 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 15 September 2024Colorado Rapids 2–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 2 August 2024Portland Timbers 4–0 Colorado RapidsLeagues Cup
- 25 February 2024Portland Timbers 4–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Portland Timbers carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.44 for Colorado Rapids. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Portland Timbers and 1.39 for Colorado Rapids. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portland Timbers rate 0.73 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Colorado Rapids rate 0.59 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Colorado Rapids, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portland Timbers the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Portland Timbers against 1.39 for Colorado Rapids. Portland Timbers's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.36 for Colorado Rapids.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Portland Timbers at home · Colorado Rapids away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Portland Timbers 27, Colorado Rapids 27.
Portland Timbers score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Colorado Rapids have let in 12 there.
Colorado Rapids score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Portland Timbers have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Portland Timbers
- vs Charlotte25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 36%
- at St. Louis City29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 25%
- vs Houston Dynamo2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 38%
Colorado Rapids
- vs Vancouver Whitecaps25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 29%
- at San Jose Earthquakes29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 29%
- vs Chicago Fire1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.