FC Porto
vs
Sporting CP
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Porto 2–1 Sporting CP
The model makes it 48% FC Porto, 26% draw, 26% Sporting CP — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Porto 1.79, Sporting CP 1.18.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Porto's rating is built from 45 Primeira Liga matches and Sporting CP's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 714 matches.
Key facts
- FC Porto are top on 33 points from 11 games; Sporting CP are 3rd on 24 points from 11 games — Primeira Liga.
- FC Porto are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Vitória SC.
- Sporting CP have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Moreirense.
- Last 6 meetings: Sporting CP 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2026, ended FC Porto 0–0 Sporting CP.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Porto vs Sporting CP
Has the model earned this number?
FC Porto at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Porto vs Sporting CP
FC Porto
Primeira Liga
- W2-1away to Vitória SC8 November 2026
- W4-0Estoril31 October 2026
- W1-0away to GIL Vicente24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Maritimo10 October 2026
- W3-1Benfica20 September 2026
Sporting CP
Primeira Liga
- W1-0Moreirense7 November 2026
- W2-0away to Casa Pia30 October 2026
- L1-2Academico Viseu25 October 2026
- W3-1away to SC Braga9 October 2026
- D2-2Arouca19 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Porto won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Porto had three goals or more.
- Sporting CP scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 5 | +22 | 33 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Porto vs Sporting CP
- 22 April 2026FC Porto 0–0 Sporting CPTaça de Portugal
- 3 March 2026Sporting CP 1–0 FC PortoTaça de Portugal
- 9 February 2026FC Porto 1–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 30 August 2025Sporting CP 1–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 7 February 2025FC Porto 1–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 7 January 2025Sporting CP 1–0 FC PortoTaça da Liga
Leading scorers: FC Porto and Sporting CP
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Borja Sainz61
- Gabri Veiga54
- André Silva42
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez91
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Porto a 69.3% chance of the title and Sporting CP 8.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for FC Porto against 1.18 for Sporting CP. FC Porto's attack/defence rating is 1.49/0.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.58/0.8 for Sporting CP.
How the model reaches 48% for FC Porto to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Porto to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, FC Porto's ratings add 2 points and Sporting CP's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- FC Porto's ratings43%+2
- Sporting CP's ratings48%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Porto at home · Sporting CP away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: FC Porto 11, Sporting CP 11.
FC Porto score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Sporting CP have let in 0 there.
Sporting CP score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); FC Porto have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Porto
- at Santa Clara5 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 53%
- at Liverpool9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- vs Estrela13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 79%
- at Famalicao20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 56%
Sporting CP
- vs Maritimo4 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 82%
- at AS Roma8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 22%
- at GIL Vicente12 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 51%
- vs Estoril20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 78%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.