GIL Vicente
vs
Estoril
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: GIL Vicente 1–0 Estoril
The model makes it 53% GIL Vicente, 27% draw, 20% Estoril — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: GIL Vicente 1.66, Estoril 0.82.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to GIL Vicente: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. GIL Vicente's rating is built from 45 Primeira Liga matches and Estoril's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 714 matches.
Key facts
- GIL Vicente are 7th on 18 points from 11 games; Estoril are bottom on 2 points from 10 games — Primeira Liga.
- GIL Vicente have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Santa Clara.
- Estoril have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to FC Porto.
- Last 6 meetings: GIL Vicente 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Estoril 3–1 GIL Vicente.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: GIL Vicente vs Estoril
Has the model earned this number?
GIL Vicente at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into GIL Vicente vs Estoril
GIL Vicente
Primeira Liga
- W2-1away to Santa Clara8 November 2026
- D0-0Vitória SC2 November 2026
- L0-1FC Porto24 October 2026
- W2-1away to SC Braga19 October 2026
- W1-0away to Moreirense9 October 2026
Estoril
Primeira Liga
- L0-4away to FC Porto31 October 2026
- L1-3Moreirense25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu10 October 2026
- L1-2Casa Pia20 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga14 September 2026
What these results say
- Estoril did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Estoril conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Estoril had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 18 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Estoril
- 22 February 2026Estoril 3–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 21 September 2025GIL Vicente 2–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 1 February 2025GIL Vicente 1–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 25 August 2024Estoril 0–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 18 February 2024Estoril 1–3 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 17 September 2023GIL Vicente 5–3 EstorilPrimeira Liga
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GIL Vicente the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for GIL Vicente against 0.82 for Estoril. GIL Vicente's attack/defence rating is 0.81/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.37 for Estoril.
How the model reaches 53% for GIL Vicente to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for GIL Vicente to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, GIL Vicente's ratings add 6 points and Estoril's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level39%−2
- GIL Vicente's ratings45%+6
- Estoril's ratings53%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
GIL Vicente at home · Estoril away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: GIL Vicente 11, Estoril 10.
GIL Vicente score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Estoril have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
GIL Vicente
- at Estrela6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 40%
- vs Sporting CP12 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 23%
- at Alverca20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 34%
- vs Arouca27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 38%
- at Nacional10 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 39%
Estoril
- vs Vitória SC6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 30%
- vs Santa Clara12 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 25%
- at Sporting CP20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 8%
- vs Alverca27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 31%
- vs Maritimo4 Jan · Primeira Ligawin 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.