Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad 3-2 Deportivo La Coruna.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Real Sociedad, 25% draw, 26% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 15Pablo MarínD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 7BarrenetxeaM
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 24L. SučićF
- 23A. ZakharyanF
- 27Gorka CarreraF
- 34Luken BeitiaD
- 22Héctor FortD
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 14T. KuboF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 12J. OchiengF
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 13Leo RománG
- 23Ximo NavarroD
- 20J. GiménezD
- 22B. EdeD
- 12G. QuagliataD
- 11David MellaM
- 21Mario SorianoM
- 8Diego VillaresM
- 10PekeM
- 19Luismi CruzF
- 32B. NsongoF
- 2Adrià AltiD
- 17AngeliñoD
- 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
- 37NoéM
- 25Álvaro FernándezG
- 15Miguel LoureiroD
- 4L. NoubiD
- 31Martín OchoaF
- 14Riki RodríguezM
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna
Real Sociedad
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Valencia20 September 2026
- L1-2Bournemouth17 September 2026
- L0-3Atletico Madrid13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
Deportivo La Coruna
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Real Betis20 September 2026
- L0-1Sevilla16 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Villarreal5 September 2026
- W3-1Valencia30 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Real Sociedad had three goals or more.
- Deportivo La Coruna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo La Coruna.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 22 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 2 February 2018Real Sociedad 5–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 10 September 2017Deportivo La Coruna 2–4 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 23 April 2017Real Sociedad 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 5 December 2016Deportivo La Coruna 5–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 16 January 2016Real Sociedad 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Deportivo La Coruna
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić40
- O. Óskarsson40
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Sociedad beat Deportivo La Coruna 3–2. The model had made a win for Real Sociedad its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jon Martin 29' for Real Sociedad, Arsen Zakharyan 34' for Real Sociedad, Gonçalo Guedes 54' for Real Sociedad, Mario Soriano 61' for Deportivo La Coruna, Yeremay Hernández (penalty) 69' for Deportivo La Coruna. Sent off: Pablo Marin (Real Sociedad) 66', Lorenzo Amatucci (Deportivo La Coruna) 90'. On expected goals it finished 1.53–2.00.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Sociedad a 8.2% chance to finish in the top four: 9.6% after a win, 6.3% after a draw, 6.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.6%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.
For Deportivo La Coruna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 6.2% going in: 3.4% after a win, 5.4% after a draw, 7.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Real Sociedad's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Real Sociedad win49%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Deportivo La Coruna win26%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.