Dinamo Minsk
vs
SC Braga
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 20% Dinamo Minsk, 24% draw, 56% SC Braga — fair odds of 5.00, 4.17 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Dinamo Minsk 1.00, SC Braga 1.81.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Dinamo Minsk carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.71 for SC Braga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dinamo Minsk L-W-L-L; SC Braga W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Dinamo Minsk and 1.81 for SC Braga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Minsk rate 0.53 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Braga rate 0.74 and 1.00.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1 expected goals for Dinamo Minsk against 1.81 for SC Braga. Dinamo Minsk's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1 for SC Braga.