Sassuolo
vs
Lazio
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sassuolo 0–1 Lazio
The model makes it 33% Sassuolo, 29% draw, 38% Lazio — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.18, Lazio 1.30.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Sassuolo are 11th on 8 points from 6 games; Lazio are 2nd on 16 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Sassuolo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to AC Milan.
- Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Monza.
- Last 6 meetings: Lazio 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 March 2026, ended Lazio 2–1 Sassuolo.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sassuolo vs Lazio
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lazio at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sassuolo vs Lazio
Sassuolo
- D1-1AC Milan11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Monza18 September 2026
- W3-2Juventus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
- W2-1Torino29 August 2026
Lazio
- W3-1Monza11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia19 September 2026
- D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sassuolo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Sassuolo.
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lazio
Chance to finish in the top four · 17% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sassuolo vs Lazio
- 9 March 2026Lazio 2–1 SassuoloSerie A
- 14 September 2025Sassuolo 1–0 LazioSerie A
- 26 May 2024Lazio 1–1 SassuoloSerie A
- 21 October 2023Sassuolo 0–2 LazioSerie A
- 3 May 2023Lazio 2–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 15 January 2023Sassuolo 0–2 LazioSerie A
Leading scorers: Sassuolo and Lazio
Sassuolo
GoalsAssists
- Vasilije Adžić31
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- D. Frattesi30
- T. Noslin22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sassuolo carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.97 for Lazio. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Sassuolo and 1.30 for Lazio. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sassuolo rate 1.06 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lazio rate 1.01 and 0.80.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sassuolo a 0% chance of the title and Lazio 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lazio the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sassuolo against 1.30 for Lazio. Sassuolo's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.8 for Lazio.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sassuolo at home · Lazio away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SassuoloLazio
Sassuolo are 10th after 6 Serie A matches (between 9th and 15th so far); Lazio are 2nd after 6 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Sassuolo 6, Lazio 6.
Sassuolo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Lazio have let in 0 there.
Lazio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Sassuolo have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sassuolo
- vs Fiorentina2 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at AS Roma7 Nov · Serie Awin 14%
- vs Genoa22 Nov · Serie Awin 45%
Lazio
- vs Cagliari1 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at Napoli8 Nov · Serie Awin 24%
- vs Lecce21 Nov · Serie Awin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.