FC Seoul
vs
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: FC Seoul 1–0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC
The model makes it 48% FC Seoul, 28% draw, 24% Gimcheon Sangmu FC — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Seoul 1.79, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.95.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- FC Seoul are top on 62 points from 30 games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are 10th on 33 points from 30 games — K League 1.
- FC Seoul have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Pohang Steelers.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-0 win away to Bucheon FC 1995.
- Last 6 meetings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–0 FC Seoul.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Seoul at 48% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
FC Seoul
- L1-2away to Pohang Steelers20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Jeonbuk Motors12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ulsan Hyundai FC8 September 2026
- W1-0Incheon United5 September 2026
- W5-2away to Gwangju FC30 August 2026
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- W2-0away to Bucheon FC 199519 September 2026
- D2-2Gangwon FC13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Pohang Steelers9 September 2026
- D2-2Gwangju FC6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ulsan Hyundai FC29 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Seoul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Seoul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 56 | 25 | +31 | 62 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 30 | 5 | 18 | 7 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 8 August 2026Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–0 FC SeoulK League 1
- 2 May 2026FC Seoul 2–3 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 22 November 2025FC Seoul 1–3 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 17 August 2025Gimcheon Sangmu FC 6–2 FC SeoulK League 1
- 28 May 2025Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 FC SeoulK League 1
- 3 March 2025FC Seoul 0–0 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
Leading scorers: FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC
FC Seoul
- P. Klimala5 goals
- Lee Seung-Mo3 goals1 assist
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Go Jae-Hyeon5 goals3 assists
- Lee Kun-Hee3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Seoul carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.44 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for FC Seoul and 0.95 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Seoul rate 0.91 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimcheon Sangmu FC rate 0.61 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Seoul a 100% chance of the title and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Seoul the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for FC Seoul against 0.95 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. FC Seoul's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.4 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Seoul at home · Gimcheon Sangmu FC away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: FC Seoul 30, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30.
FC Seoul score most often in the 46–60 minute window (17 goals); Gimcheon Sangmu FC have let in 5 there.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); FC Seoul have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
FC Seoul
- vs Gangwon FC24 Oct · K League 1win 44%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- vs Daejeon Citizen24 Oct · K League 1win 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.