Sao Paulo
vs
Santos
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sao Paulo 1–0 Santos
The model makes it 40% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 30% Santos — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.42, Santos 1.11.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sao Paulo vs Santos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sao Paulo at 40% here. Across 2825 settled matches, 1304 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sao Paulo vs Santos
Sao Paulo
- W1-0Internacional20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Palmeiras12 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
Santos
- W2-1away to Remo19 September 2026
- W2-1Cruzeiro13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corinthians30 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol23 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sao Paulo had two goals or fewer.
- Santos went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Santos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Santos won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 36 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Santos
- 4 February 2026Santos 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 31 January 2026Sao Paulo 2–0 SantosPaulista - A1
- 21 September 2025Santos 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 20 April 2025Sao Paulo 2–1 SantosSerie A
- 1 February 2025Santos 3–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
- 14 February 2024Sao Paulo 0–1 SantosPaulista - A1
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Santos
Sao Paulo
- Luciano8 goals2 assists
- J. Calleri8 goals1 assists
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa11 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sao Paulo carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.75 for Santos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.11 for Santos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sao Paulo rate 0.77 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santos rate 0.96 and 1.17.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Santos, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1321 correct results out of 2825 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sao Paulo the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sao Paulo against 1.11 for Santos. Sao Paulo's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.17 for Santos.