29 July 2026, 17:30 UTC

Barracas Central vs Aldosivi Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Claudio Fabian Tapia, Barracas
Full time1 0

Final score: Barracas Central 1-0 Aldosivi.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Barracas Central, 28% draw, 33% Aldosivi — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Barracas Central at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Barracas Central96%Draw4%Aldosivi0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Tomás Porraassist: Iván Tapia
40'
46'
🔁Juan Bautista Dadínout: Martin Garcia
46'
🔁Tomás Fernándezout: Matías Godoy
62'
🔁Nicolás Linaresout: Alan Sosa
62'
🔁Elías Lópezout: Andrés Vombergar
Rafael Barrios
69'
🔁Jhonatan Candiaout: Juan Ignacio Barbieri
70'
🔁Iván Tapiaout: Rodrigo Bogarín
70'
71'
Martin Garcia
77'
🔁Nicolás Corderoout: Andrés Chávez
🔁Norberto Briascoout: Gonzalo Maroni
79'
🔁Rafael Barriosout: Nicolas Capraro
89'
🔁Tomás Porraout: Maximiliano Puig
89'

Match stats — Barracas Central vs Aldosivi

51%Possession49%
10Shots9
4On target1
1Corners8
0.4xG0.38

Goals against chances

Barracas Central1 from 0.40 xGmore than the chances were worth
Aldosivi0 from 0.38 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Barracas Central
  • 30Marcelo Agustín MiñoG
  • 13Rafael BarriosD
  • 14Kevin JappertD
  • 15Yonatthan RakD
  • 31Nicolás DemartiniD
  • 6Rodrigo InsúaD
  • 8Tomás PorraM
  • 5Dardo MilocM
  • 10Iván TapiaM
  • 11Norberto BriascoF
  • 20Jhonatan CandiaF
Substitutes
  • 28Rodrigo BogarínM
  • 7Juan Ignacio BarbieriF
  • 33Gonzalo MaroniM
  • 2Nicolas CapraroD
  • 79Maximiliano PuigM
  • 1Juan EspínolaG
  • 37Gastón CampiD
  • 32Fernando TobioD
  • 17Elías PereyraD
Coach: Damian Ayude
Aldosivi
  • 23Ignacio ChiccoG
  • 25Néstor BreitenbruchD
  • 33Nicolás ZalazarD
  • 32Joaquin PomboD
  • 14Elías LópezM
  • 5Nicolás LinaresM
  • 19Lucas CastroM
  • 17Federico LaurelliM
  • 16Juan Bautista DadínF
  • 9Nicolás CorderoF
  • 27Tomás FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 8Martin GarciaM
  • 21Matías GodoyM
  • 22Alan SosaF
  • 29Andrés VombergarF
  • 18Andrés ChávezF
  • 42Lucas AcostaG
  • 2Leonardo SigaliD
  • 28Santiago MoyaD
  • 4Rodrigo GonzálezD
Coach: Israel Damonte

Form going into Barracas Central vs Aldosivi

Barracas Central

  • W1-0away to River Plate25 July 2026

Aldosivi

  • D1-1away to Defensa Y Justicia24 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Barracas Central vs Aldosivi

  • 29 July 2026Barracas Central 0–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 28 January 2026Aldosivi 0–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 10 August 2025Barracas Central 3–1 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 February 2025Aldosivi 1–3 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 October 2022Aldosivi 2–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 5 March 2022Barracas Central 2–1 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.