Defensa Y Justicia vs Deportivo Riestra Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 Deportivo Riestra.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Defensa Y Justicia, 24% draw, 31% Deportivo Riestra — fair odds of 2.22, 4.17 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Defensa Y Justicia at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Defensa Y Justicia vs Deportivo Riestra
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Matías BorgognoG
- 33Lucas SoutoD
- 29Damián FernándezD
- 2Samuel LuceroD
- 40Máximo RodríguezD
- 15Santiago SosaM
- 8César PérezM
- 17Agustín HauschM
- 19David BarbonaM
- 24Juan Manuel GutiérrezM
- 9Leandro FernándezF
- 3Fernando RománD
- 16Ayrton PortilloM
- 27Domingo BlancoM
- 28Valentín LozaD
- 36Lautaro AmadeG
- 13Mateo LópezD
- 23Mateo AguiarM
- 44Jonás CabreraM
- 25Facundo AltamiraF
- 1Ignacio ArceG
- 36Mariano BracamonteD
- 24Facundo MiñoD
- 22Cristian PazD
- 2Carlos QuintanaD
- 15Nicolás SansotreD
- 10Braian SánchezM
- 8Milton CelizM
- 14Pablo MonjeM
- 7Antony AlonsoM
- 11Alexander DíazF
- 16Nicolas WatsonM
- 21Tomás GonzalezF
- 6Ignacio GariglioD
- 29Miguel Agustín GranerosF
- 27Yonatan GoitiaD
- 23Marino ArzamendiaG
- 3Eric TovoD
- 13Rodrigo GalloD
- 20Thiago LauroM
Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs Deportivo Riestra
Defensa Y Justicia
- D1-1Aldosivi24 July 2026
Deportivo Riestra
- W3-0Boca Juniors26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Defensa Y Justicia | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 17 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Deportivo Riestra
- 29 January 2026Deportivo Riestra 0–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 August 2025Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 February 2025Deportivo Riestra 1–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 November 2024Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 February 2024Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Deportivo RiestraCopa de la Liga Profesional