Defensa Y Justicia
vs
Deportivo Riestra
Final score: Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 Deportivo Riestra.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Defensa Y Justicia, 24% draw, 40% Deportivo Riestra — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Defensa Y Justicia 1.58, Deportivo Riestra 1.67.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Match stats: Defensa Y Justicia vs Deportivo Riestra
Defensa Y Justicia had 62% possession, 12 shots (7 on target), 5 corners, 1.8 expected goals; Deportivo Riestra had 38% possession, 17 shots (5 on target), 3 corners, 1.13 expected goals.
Goals: Juan Manuel Gutiérrez 23' for Defensa Y Justicia, David Barbona 37' for Defensa Y Justicia, Tomás Gonzalez 72' for Deportivo Riestra.
Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Deportivo Riestra
- 29 January 2026Deportivo Riestra 0–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 August 2025Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 February 2025Deportivo Riestra 1–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 November 2024Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 February 2024Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Deportivo RiestraCopa de la Liga Profesional
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Riestra the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia against 1.67 for Deportivo Riestra. Defensa Y Justicia's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.01 for Deportivo Riestra.