Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Sao Paulo 2-0 Atletico Mineiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 33% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sao Paulo at 37% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23RafaelG
- 22D. DuarteD
- 5Robert ArboledaD
- 35SabinoD
- 19Lucas RamonM
- 94DanielzinhoM
- 8Marcos AntonioM
- 18WendellM
- 37ArturF
- 43G. SantanaF
- 10LucianoF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 2R. ToloiD
- 12Iago BorduchiD
- 80CaulyM
- 28NewtonM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 48DjhordneyM
- 11FerreiraF
- 17Andre SilvaF
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 40VitaoD
- 21A. FrancoD
- 28CuelloM
- 15K. CastanoM
- 5AlexsanderM
- 6R. LodiM
- 30Victor HugoF
- 11BernardF
- 19ReinierF
- 46Pedro CobraG
- 31RobertG
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 36K. PasciniD
- 53Pedro LemosD
- 7FredM
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 39M. CisseM
Form going into Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro
Sao Paulo
- W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
Atletico Mineiro
- W2-1Vitoria29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 36 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro
- 18 March 2026Atletico Mineiro 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 24 August 2025Sao Paulo 2–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 6 April 2025Atletico Mineiro 0–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 24 November 2024Sao Paulo 2–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 13 September 2024Atletico Mineiro 0–0 Sao PauloCopa Do Brasil
- 29 August 2024Sao Paulo 0–1 Atletico MineiroCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Atletico Mineiro
Sao Paulo
- Luciano9 goals1 assist
- J. Calleri8 goals1 assist
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.