RB Bragantino vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result
Final score: RB Bragantino 2-3 Bahia.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% RB Bragantino, 30% draw, 36% Bahia — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 36% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — RB Bragantino vs Bahia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18Tiago VolpiG
- 34A. HurtadoD
- 4Alix ViniciusD
- 16Gustavo MarquesD
- 29Juninho CapixabaD
- 5FabinhoM
- 20RodriguinhoM
- 32J. HerreraM
- 21Lucas BarbosaM
- 47Wallace YanM
- 11Fernando SantosF
- 1CleitonG
- 51Caue NascimentoD
- 52R. TavaresD
- 14Pedro HenriqueD
- 2G. RodriguezD
- 7Eric RamiresM
- 22Gustavo NevesM
- 6GabrielM
- 35Matheus FernandesM
- 1Ronaldo StradaG
- 31R. GomezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 21S. RamosD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 14ErickM
- 5Nicolas AcevedoM
- 11RodrigoM
- 99C. OliveraF
- 9A. VelizF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 17G. HerreraG
- 4KanuD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 66Ze GuilhermeD
- 10Everton RibeiroM
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 12Willian JoseF
- 7AdemirF
Form going into RB Bragantino vs Bahia
RB Bragantino
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo29 August 2026
Bahia
- W3-2Internacional30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Vitoria23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | RB Bragantino | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 36 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Bragantino vs Bahia
- 18 March 2026Bahia 2–0 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 2 November 2025Bahia 2–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 12 June 2025RB Bragantino 0–3 BahiaSerie A
- 1 September 2024RB Bragantino 2–1 BahiaSerie A
- 12 May 2024Bahia 1–0 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 20 August 2023Bahia 4–0 RB BragantinoSerie A
Leading scorers: RB Bragantino and Bahia
RB Bragantino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Bahia
- Luciano Juba9 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.