RB Bragantino
vs
Bahia
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 43% RB Bragantino, 28% draw, 29% Bahia — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: RB Bragantino 1.38, Bahia 1.09.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
RB Bragantino
- D1-1away to Atletico Paranaense15 August 2026
- L0-2Corinthians9 August 2026
- D0-0Coritiba26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Fluminense17 July 2026
- W3-1Internacional31 May 2026
Bahia
- D3-3away to Chapecoense16 August 2026
- D0-0Vasco da Gama9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Fluminense30 July 2026
- D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 23 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
RB Bragantino
No league goals recorded yet.
Bahia
- Luciano Juba7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
RB Bragantino carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.78 for Bahia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): RB Bragantino W-D-D-L-D; Bahia D-D-D-D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for RB Bragantino and 1.09 for Bahia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RB Bragantino rate 0.77 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bahia rate 0.82 and 0.95.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bahia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Bragantino the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for RB Bragantino against 1.09 for Bahia. RB Bragantino's attack/defence rating is 0.77/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/0.95 for Bahia.