Inter vs Napoli Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Inter 3-2 Napoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Inter, 27% draw, 22% Napoli — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter at 51% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter vs Napoli
Line-ups
- 1Josep MartínezG
- 31Y. BisseckD
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 95A. BastoniD
- 17A. DioufM
- 23N. BarellaM
- 7P. ZielińskiM
- 8P. SučićM
- 32F. DimarcoM
- 94F. EspositoF
- 10Lautaro MartínezF
- 49I. ProvedelG
- 28B. PavardD
- 6J. StonesD
- 5A. StankovićM
- 14A. BonnyF
- 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
- 30Carlos AugustoD
- 12R. Di GennaroG
- 21C. JonesM
- 1A. MeretG
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 37L. SpinazzolaD
- 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
- 68S. LobotkaM
- 26A. VergaraM
- 21M. PolitanoF
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 27Alisson SantosF
- 17M. OliveraD
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 70N. LangF
- 6B. GilmourM
- 2C. FavasuliD
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 7David NeresF
- 14N. ContiniG
- 31S. BeukemaD
Form going into Inter vs Napoli
Inter
- W1-0away to Cagliari30 August 2026
- W4-1Monza22 August 2026
Napoli
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 13 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter vs Napoli
- 5 September 2026Inter 3–2 NapoliSerie A
- 11 January 2026Inter 2–2 NapoliSerie A
- 25 October 2025Napoli 3–1 InterSerie A
- 1 March 2025Napoli 1–1 InterSerie A
- 10 November 2024Inter 1–1 NapoliSerie A
- 17 March 2024Inter 1–1 NapoliSerie A
Leading scorers: Inter and Napoli
Inter
- Lautaro Martínez4 goals
- M. Thuram2 goals2 assists
- F. Esposito2 goals1 assist
Napoli
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.